Agefi Luxembourg - juin 2026

AGEFI Luxembourg 6 Juin 2026 Économie & Banques E YLuxembourg releases the fifth edition of its LuxembourgAttractiveness Sur­ vey, at a timewhenglobal investment patterns are undergoing amajor shift.More than twodecades after EYbegan tracking Fo­ reignDirect Investment (FDI) across Europe, the 2026 findings confirmthat investment cy­ cles aremore complex, shapednot onlyby geopolitical uncertainty and cost pressures, but by increasingly selective decisionma­ king among international investors. At the same time, this surveyhasbecomea reference point inLuxembourg, built on a consistentmethod­ ology that compares investment intent with actual investment decisions over time. This dual perspec­ tive highlights a critical insight: the gap between what investors plan to do andwhat they ultimately do often reveals more about competitiveness than any single data point. For Luxembourg, this year marks an important in­ flection point. The country has long been synony­ mous with trust, political stability and regulatory credibility,supportedbyahighlyinternationalwork­ force and deep integration into European markets. Thesestrengthsremainfirmlyinplacebutmaintain­ ing this position cannot be taken for granted in a global environment where competing jurisdictions are actively reinforcing their value propositions. “Luxembourg’sstrengthhasalwaysbeenitsabilityto adapt and evolve,” says Alban Aubrée, EY Luxem­ bourg Country Managing Partner. “What the 2026 findings showclearly is that the country is entering a new phase, where competitiveness will depend on trust and stability, as well as how effectively those strengths are translated into execution, scale and highervalue activities.” Europe’s FDI slowdowndeepens and the gapwidens across countries Europe recorded 5,026 FDI projects in 2025, down 7 %yearonyearand24%comparedto2017,confirm­ ing that the downturn is structural rather than cycli­ cal. The decline is particularly visible in Europe’s largest economies, with France (17 %), the United Kingdom(14%) andGermany (10%) all recording significant contractions in investment flows. These declines reflect a broader shift in investor be­ havior. Capital is not leaving Europe entirely, but is becoming more selective, concentrating in strategic sectors suchasAI, digital infrastructure, defense and lowcarbonenergy,whiletraditionalmanufacturing, logistics and R&D activities continue to weaken. At the same time, investor appetite is cooling,withonly 54 % of executives planning to invest in Europe in 2026, comparedwith 59% in 2025 and 72% in 2024. Luxembourg diverges positively: fewer projects inEurope but steady gains at home “Luxembourg stands out as amarket that is not ex­ panding in volume, but strengthening in resilience and relevance,” says Aubrée. The number of FDI projects increased from 33 to 35 between 2024 and 2025, andmore importantly, from25projects in2021 to 35 projects in 2025, representing a 40 % increase overfiveyears. Thisgrowth trajectorycontrastswith thebroaderEuropeandeclineandreflects adifferent investment profile. Luxembourg has limited exposure to the most af­ fected sectors and instead attracts serviceoriented, highly specialized and technologyenabled activities. This positions the country in line with the current phase of global investment, where fewer projects are being realized, but eachcarrieshigher strategicvalue. The composition of this growth is equally telling. Fi­ nancial services have strengthened structurally over the period, rising from five projects in 2021 to 18 in 2025 and nowaccounting for 51%of all FDI projects inLuxembourg.Atthesametime,softwareandITac­ tivity has expanded, representing 20 % of projects in 2025, with Luxembourg capturing a meaningful number ofAIrelated investments relative to its size. Finance remains the core pillar, but themodel is evolving The researchhighlights that Luxembourg’s compet­ itiveness continues to rest on a strong and resilient financial services engine, particularly as Europe’s broader investment environment becomes more fragmented. While investment volumes decline acrossmany sectors and geographies, financial ser­ vices remain one of the areas where capital contin­ ues to concentrate. Aubrée states, “Luxembourg’s performance reflects this trend, but also points to a deeper evolution. The traditional model which is anchored in operational, backand middleoffice activities is being reshaped byAI, automation and datadriven businessmodels. As these technologies erode the advantage of opera­ tionalfunctions,theysimultaneouslycreateanoppor­ tunity for Luxembourg to attract highervalue activities,includingportfoliooversight,productstruc­ turing and strategic decisionmaking roles.” Investor confidence holds but becomesmore realistic Investor sentiment toward Luxembourg remains solid, though clearlymoremeasured than inprevi­ ous years. In 2026, 54 % of respondents plan to es­ tablish or expand operations in Luxembourg, compared with 57 % in 2025 and 72 % in 2024, re­ flecting a broader European cooling rather than a deterioration of Luxembourg’s fundamentals. Im­ portantly, longterm confidence remains intact. Over half (56 %) of investors still expect Luxem­ bourg’s attractiveness to improveover thenext three years, while 71 % report that they have not post­ poned, scaled back or cancelled their investment plans. Says Brice Lecoustey, Attractiveness Survey Leader, “This reinforcesLuxembourg’s role as a safe anchoring point in a volatile global environment.A locationwhere investors continue to deploy capital even as they becomemore selective elsewhere.” Advantages remain clear The outlook confirms a strong consistency in how investors perceive Luxembourg’s strengths. The country continues to be associatedwith tax andpo­ litical stability, and a highquality regulatory envi­ ronment, reinforcing its positioning as a trustedand predictable hub for international investment, espe­ cially within financial services. At the same time, the disadvantages are equally well understood. Investors consistently cite small market size, high labor and input costs, and energy costs as the main constraints. These are largely structural factors that are sticky to change, but are becoming more visible as investors place greater emphasis on cost predictability, resilience and scal­ ability in their location decisions. Talent is no longer the primary concern; housing takes its place One of themost notable shifts in the 2026 findings is thechangeinhowinvestorsperceivetalent.Aftersev­ eralyearsofbeingseenasakeyrisk,talenthasbecome lessofaconcern,particularlyinfinancialservices.This potentiallyreflectseasinghiringpressures,improved accesstocrossbordertalentandgreaterpredictability inrelocationframeworks.However,theconstrainthas not altogether disappeared. Rather, it has shifted. The availability and affordability of housing has emerged as themost critical issue, identified by 61% of respondents as a top infrastructure priority. Lux­ embourg’s ability to attract talent is less constrained by skills availability and increasingly by the capacity to anchor that talent sustainably in the country. Asecond engine emerges: building the nonfinancial innovation economy Beyond financial services, the survey points to the growing importance of a second engine: Luxem­ bourg’snonfinancialinnovationeconomy,spanning sectors such asAI, cybersecurity, space anddefense. This evolution is takingplace inabroaderEuropean context where geopolitical developments and in­ creaseddefense spending are reshaping investment flows. Luxembourg has begun to position itself within this shift, leveraging its strengths in data in­ frastructure, space capabilities, cybersecurity and crossborder collaboration. “Luxembourghaslonghadalltheingredientstobuild a strong nonfinancial sector. This is not a newmes­ sage for us, but one that is becoming increasingly rel­ evantintoday’senvironment,”saysLecoustey.“What is encouraging is that the current momentum in de­ fense and dualuse technologies provides a tangible opportunitytoacceleratethisambition.Luxembourg doesnot need tobuild fromscratch. It alreadyhas ca­ pabilities, ecosystems and crossborder connectivity in place. The priority now is to amplify and better communicate this value proposition, positioning the country as a highvalue innovation hub that anchors research, coordination and testing capabilitieswithin broader European ecosystems.” Fromstability to execution: a clear strategic shift Across all levers crucial to enhancingLuxembourg’s attractiveness (innovation, talent, regulation, taxand sustainability) the 2026 survey points to a clear con­ clusion. Luxembourg’s fundamentals are not up for debate.Whatischangingishowthosefundamentals are evaluated. Investors are no longer judging loca­ tions primarily on the strength of their frameworks, incentives or positioning. Increasingly, they are as­ sessing execution: how quickly projects can be ap­ proved, howpredictably regulation is applied, how easilytalentcanbemobilizedandhoweffectivelyin­ novation can be scaled. “In this more selective investment environment, Luxembourg’s competitivenessdepends onanchor­ ingtherightprojects.Theabilitytotranslatetrustinto execution, stability into substance, and connectivity into leadership will define the country’s next phase of growth,” saysAubrée. Full2026Survey : https://www.ey.com/en_lu/insights/financialservices/luxembourgat­ tractivenesssurvey Luxembourg, (becoming) the smart way into Europe ©EY L a Commission européenne a an­ noncé, le 4 juin, l’adoption d’ajuste­ ments temporaires et ciblés dans la mise en œuvre des règles de Bâle III re­ latives aux risques de marché. Cette dé­ cision vise à éviter que les banques de l’Union européenne ne subissent un désavantage concurrentiel face à leurs homologues internationaux, dans un contexte de mise en œuvre inégale des standards pru­ dentiels mondiaux. Au cœur de cette réforme se trouve la ré­ visionfondamentaleduportefeuilledené­ gociation (FRTB), un ensemble de règles techniques issues du cadre prudentiel in­ ternationalBâleIII,élaboréparleComitéde Bâle sur le contrôle bancaire. Cette révision vise à mieux mesurer les risques liés aux activités de marché des banques —notamment celles de tra­ ding—etàrendrelesexigencesdefondspropresplus sensibles aux risques réellement encourus. Undécalage international jugé problématique Si l’Unioneuropéenne adéjàmis enœuvre l’ensem­ ble des autres composantes de Bâle III depuis le 1 er janvier 2025, la situation est différente pour laFRTB. Plusieurs grandes juridic­ tions financières ont pris du retard ou envisagent un report de son applica­ tion. Ce décalage suscite des inquié­ tudes à Bruxelles : les banques européennes, soumises plus tôt à des exigencesplus strictes, pourraient se retrouver en situationde dés­ avantage concurrentiel sur les marchés mondiaux. Les institutions européennes actives dans les activités de marché seraient en effet confrontées à des exigences de capital plus élevées que leursconcurrentesétrangères, ce qui pourrait affecter leur compétitivité, leur rentabilité et leur capacité d’intervention sur les marchés financiers internationaux. Une réponse technique et temporaire Pour répondre à ce risque, la Commission a choisi d’activer une habilitation prévue dans le règlement surlesexigencesdefondspropres(CRR),luipermet­ tant d’adopterunactedélégué.Celuici introduit des ajustements techniques limités dans le temps, dont unmécanismede typemultiplicateur destiné à atté­ nuer temporairement l’impact de la FRTB sur les fonds propres des banques européennes. Ces mesures ne constituent pas une remise en cause du cadre de Bâle III, mais une adaptation transitoire destinée à lisser les effets de calendrier entre juridic­ tions.Elless’appliquerontpouruneduréedetroisans, à compter du 1 er janvier 2027. Selon la Commission, cette approche permet de concilier deux objectifs : maintenirl’intégritéducadreprudentielinternational etpréserverdesconditionsdeconcurrenceéquitables pour les établissements européens. Un lien direct avec l’Union des marchés de capitaux Cette décision s’inscrit également dans la stratégie plus large de l’Union de l’épargne et des investisse­ ments, parfois rapprochée de l’objectif de dévelop­ pement d’une véritable union des marchés de capitaux en Europe. L’enjeu est de renforcer la capa­ cité des banques européennes à financer l’économie, tout en consolidant la profondeur et l’attractivité des marchés financiers européens. En évitant une surcharge réglementaire temporaire­ ment asymétrique, la Commission espère soutenir la compétitivitédes établissements européens, enparti­ culier ceux fortement impliqués dans les activités de marché et les opérations internationales. Élaboration et contrôle démocratique L’acte délégué a été élaboré à l’issue d’une consulta­ tion publique et d’une évaluation technique appro­ fondie. Il doit désormais être transmis auParlement européen ainsi qu’au Conseil de l’Union euro­ péenne, qui disposent d’un délai de contrôle initial de trois mois, pouvant être prolongé de trois mois supplémentaires. En l’absence d’objection, les me­ sures entreront envigueur le 1 er janvier 2027 et s’ap­ pliqueront jusqu’en 2030. Une position assumée sur la scène internationale La commissaire aux services financiers et à l’Union de l’épargne et des investissements, Maria Luís Albuquerque (portrait), a défendu une ap­ proche pragmatique. Selon elle, l’objectif est de per­ mettre aux banques européennes de rester compétitives à l’échelle mondiale tout en mainte­ nant l’engagement de l’Union envers les standards internationauxde stabilitéfinancière. Cettedécision traduit une tension récurrente de la régulationban­ caire européenne : concilier rigueur prudentielle et compétitivité internationale dans un environne­ ment où les calendriers réglementaires ne sont pas synchronisés entre grandes puissances financières. Source : Commission européenne Bruxelles ajuste les règles des banques européennes