Agefi Luxembourg Janvier 2020 PAGES GRATUITES

Janvier 2020 5 AGEFI Luxembourg Banques & Finance Continued on page 1 Its core competencies include asset management and investment advisory for private investors aswell as institu- tional custodybanking andbrokerage services for financial intermediaries. Together with its subsidiary, VP Fund Solutions (Luxembourg) SA, the bank specialises in professional and comprehensive fund solutions. InLuxembourg, the bankhas a total of around 100 employees serving its clients. VP Fund Solutions employs about 30 people. ….and the rest of the world? One of the strengths of VP Bank is its in- dependence in terms of providing financial advice. The Bank’s investment so- lutions are based on the principle of “open ar- chitecture”, an approach that also takes into account the best-in-class products and services of third-party providers. The result: conflicts of interest are avoided right from the start. With more than 940 employees, VP Bank Group is the right size to offer top-notch so- lutions with a personal touch. Clients enjoy the in- dividualised advice of a private bank and, thanks to the global presence of VP Bank, gain access to a worldwide network of specialists. VP Bank relies on short decision-making paths, agility and flexible and sustainable solutions. The use of digital tools supports personal client care. In addition, VP Bank’s e-banking application affords clients freedomof movement andmaximumsecu- rity when conducting banking transactions. They have round-the-clock electronic access to their se- curities and deposit accounts. Many analysts expect an economic slowdown in 2020. Others believe that the global economy should be better. What is your point of view? In our baseline scenario we don’t expect a global recession in 2020. This view is supported by the re- cent improvement of economic sentiment indica- tors and accommodativemeasures already taken by the Federal Reserve and the ECB last year. Cheaper borrowing costs should keep especially the US economy on track, and we expect a US growth rate of around 1.5% in 2020. Against this backdrop, we ex- pect the global economy to find a bottom in the first half of 2020 and to improve after that. However, last year’s economic slowdown has not been just a cyclical phenom- enon but was also driven by structural issues. Thesewill prevent a substantial strengthening of the global economy in 2020, in our view. Could you tell us about your invest- ment prospects for 2020? We recommend in- vestors to have a broadly diversified portfolio in the current environment. In our baseline scenario, equities andhigh quality bonds remain coreportfoliocomponents.Additional allocations in non-cyclical investments like goldorinsurance-linkedsecuritiesarealsoimportant froma riskmanagement perspective. What are your main scenarios? Baseline scenario: - Economic reality will help to de-escalate policy makers’ decisions - The economic slowdown will bottom out in the first half of the year and economic growthwill pick up in the second half - Central banks will continue to support the econ- omy and financial markets - Moderately higher yields and spreads - Equity markets picking up on positive news Negative scenario: - Escalation in the trade war and deteriorating de- velopments in other key areas will have negative economic consequences - Weakness in the manufacturing sector spreads to other sectors, a recession follows - Central bank stimulus is not having the desired effects anymore - Markets will lose confidence What canwe expect fromthemajor central banks? The Federal Reserve moved quickly to cut its key interest rate in2019and is againbuyingup largevol- umes of securities in order to counter possible strains in financial markets. With weakness in the US economy initially set to continue, we believe there is scope for further rate reductions. Also, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and theBankof Japanare likely to confirmtheir support- ivemonetary policy stance. Howdo you see the situation in the financial sec- tor evolving in the face of Brexit? Wethinkthenegotiationsonfuturerelationsarelikely tobeevenmorecomplexthantheonesonBrexit.Ne- gotiating free trade agreements usually take years. However, theUK’s transition period ends at the end of 2020. It is hard to believe that this deadline can be met. So, a generous extension seems to be necessary. But that’swhere the problemstarts again. During the transitionphase, Great Britainwill retain access to the EU internal market and remain part of the customsunion. Toachieve this, the countrymust continue to comply with all EU rules and wire money to Brussels as before. This, in turn, will be a nuisance formanyConservativePartymembers, as it will de facto tie the country more closely and longer to the EU than they wanted. So challenges and uncertainty remain for the time being, despite the clear majority in the elections. And without agreeing on a trade agreement, we could still end upwith a Hard Brexit. Do you expect an agreement between China and the United States in 2020? What could be the im- pact of this agreement? As a «phase one» trade deal is about the be signed by mid-January we think a comprehensive «phase two» trade deal between the United States and China is looking less likely. The secondphasewould focus on a key US complaint that China effectively steals US intellectual property by forcing US com- panies to transfer their technology toChinese rivals. How important will the US presidential election be for financial markets? The US presidential election is already casting a shadow. With Donald Trump involved, you don’t havetobeaprophettoforecastthattheelectioncam- paignwill be conducted at ear-splitting volume and thattherewillbealotofprovocativetweets.Thiswill most likely create a lot of noise for financial markets. What other factors are expected to impact the eco- nomic situation in 2020? There are a lot of powerful themes that might have a strong impact on financial markets this year: for instance, thepresidential election in theUS; the trade conflict between theUSandChina;monetarypolicy, especially the Federal Reserve; the negotiations on a comprehensive free trade agreement between the UKand theEU; political tensions in theMiddleEast; and global recession risks. Each of these themes could rapidly evolve in a positive or negative direc- tion.We think investors shouldprepare themselves by assessing different scenarios. Fiscal policyseemsgenerally favourable, andmar- kets like to hope that global risk factors (such as Brexit, trade tensions or political instability in the eurozone) will improve next year. What do you think of that? There is growing optimism that Beijing and Wash- ingtonwill sign an initial deal on trade as soon as of mid-January. As positive this might be in the short term,itdoesnotofferacomprehensivesolutiontothe trade conflict. The same holds true for Brexit. There is still the challenge that the UK and the eurozone have to agree on a comprehensive trade agreement by the end of 2020. So we think, political risk factors willstaywithinvestorsin2020.Andastherecenttur- moil after theUS killing of an Iranianmilitary leader show, geopolitics can still have a substantial impact on financial markets.At least in the short run. Interview with Dr Felix BRILL, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of VP Bank Group «We don’t expect a global recession in 2020» G e n e v a L o n d o n L u g a n o L u x e m b o u r g P a r i s S i n g a p o r e Z u r i c h www.olympicbankingsystem.com Ready for your digital transformation L e groupe de banques privées paneuropéen a présenté, le 16 jan- vier, sa nouvelle identité, reflétant une approche de partenariat en matière de gestion de patrimoine. KBL European Private Bankers, fondée à Luxembourg en 1949 et opérant dans 50 villes d’Europe, s’appelle désormais «Quintet». Le nouveau nom et la nouvelle identité du Groupe, dévoilés le 16 janvier, ont été présentés à un moment où il réalise d’impor- tants investissements pour libé- rer son énorme potentiel de croissance, notamment en élar- gissant son offre de services et en étendant sa portée mondiale. Le groupe paneuropéen de banques privées dans son ensemble a été renommé «Quintet Private Bank». La banque privée duGrand-Duché, KBLLuxembourg, a été rebapti- sée «Quintet Luxembourg» et KBL España «Quintet España». Les filiales du Groupe implan- tées de longue date sur d'autres marchés continueront d’opérer sous leur marque actuelle – chacune d’entre elle sera égale- ment identifiée comme «une banque privée Quintet». Ces marques comprennent Brown Shipley (Royaume-Uni), InsingerGilissen (Pays-Bas), Merck Finck (Allemagne) et Puilaetco (Belgique et Luxem- bourg), dont le nom a été rac- courci par rapport au précé- dent «Puilaetco Dewaay». Partout oùQuintet opère, toutes ses marques adopteront une identité d’entreprise commune, illustrée par cinq anneaux entre- mêlés. Inspiré par l’universalité de la musique et reflétant la démarche partenariale du Groupe, le nom Quintet est le symbole des cinq sens et des cinq doigts de la main – combi- nant le chiffre féminin deux et le chiffre masculin trois, représen- tant tous les êtres humains. «Notre nouveaunomillustre qui nous sommes et la façon dont nous offrons de la valeur», a expliqué Jakob Stott, CEO, Wealth Management. «Comme un ensemble musical, nous réu- nissons différents points de vue et diverses perspectives afin de répondre aux besoins de nos clients et gagner leur confiance en faisant toujours ce qui est bon pour eux». «Quintet est une banque privée pour les personnes qui voient le mondedifféremment, qui recher- chent unpartenaire commenous, engagé à protéger et faire fructi- fier leur patrimoine comme si c’était le nôtre», a-t-il déclaré. «Combinant flexibilité et sécu- rité, nous nous concentrons sur ce qui compte le plus pour les individus et les familles que nous servons, afin qu’ils puis- sent investir dans une vie plus riche, quelle que soit la façon dont ils la définissent». KBLepb devient Quintet