AGEFI Luxembourg - mars 2024

AGEFI Luxembourg 4 Mars 2024 Economie / Banques Par Philippe LEDENT, Senior Economist, ING Belgique-Luxembourg E n 2023, lemagazine The Economist se demandait si l’Allemagne était à nouveau lemalade de l’Europe ? De fait, avec une quasi stagnation du PIB sur les deux dernières années, et surtout une trèsmauvaise deuxième partie d’année 2023, on est en droit de se demander quand l’économie allemande arrivera à rebondir ? Avalanche de données Enjanvier,laproductionindus- trielle a progressé de 1,0% en glissement mensuel, contre - 2,0% en décembre. Sur un an, la production industrielle est toujours en baisse de plus de 5% et se situe désormais environ 10% en-dessous desonniveaud'avantlapandémie!Celamontrel’am- pleurdelamaladie.Laproductiondessecteursàforte intensité énergétique aheureusement rebondi d'env- iron3%enjanvier,aprèsleplongeonde6%enregistré endécembre. L'améliorationde la production indus- trielle s'est en fait étendue à tous les secteurs, à l'exception notable de l'industrie automo- bile. De son côté, la forte hausse des expor- tations en janvier a aussi apporté un peu d'espoir. L'augmentation des exportations de 6,3% sur un mois est en effet encour- ageante. Toutefois, elle est intervenue après unmois de décembre très faible et le fait que lesexportationsaientàpeineprogressésurun anoblige à tempérer l’enthousiasme. Enfin, la chute brutale des com- mandesindustriellesalleman- des est un autre élément qui incite à la prudence. La baisse de 11,3%sur unmois apresque complètement annulé la hausse de 12% enregistrée en décembre. Au-delàdeceyo-yo,latendancesur troismoisestheureusementmodéré- ment optimiste : les commandes indus- trielles ont augmenté de 2,3%par rapport à la période s’étendant d'août à octobre. Le creux de la vague,mais toujours pas de rebond imminent envue Les données conjoncturelles illustrent donc une sorte de “creux de la vague” de l'industrie alle- mande. Mais attention, le climat industriel a con- tinué à s'affaiblir en février, l'évaluationdes carnets de commande s'étant détériorée et les prévisions de production ne s'étant améliorées que de façon marginale, à partir de niveaux très bas. Le léger re- tournement du cycle des stocks endécembre et jan- vier s'est également interrompu en février, les stocks ayant à nouveau augmenté. Si l’Allemagne semble progressivement arriver au creux de la vague, un rebond n’est clairement pas imminent. Au-delà de l'industrie, une nouvelle baisse des ventes au détail en janvier, une nouvelle augmen- tation de la volonté des consommateurs d'é- pargner et la persistance d'une grande incertitude politique ne soutiennent pas vraiment l'argument souvent entendu selon lequel la consommation privée sera le moteur de la reprise économique cette année. En fait, du moins enAllemagne, c'est normalement l'industrie et les exportations qui sont les moteurs de la reprise, suivies par la con- sommation, et non l'inverse. Pour ne rien arranger, de nouveaux problèmes pèsent sur les perspectives à court terme : les grèves des conducteurs de train, du personnel des aéro- ports et des compagnies aériennes, ainsi que lesper- turbations de la chaîne d'approvisionnement dues au conflit en mer Rouge ont rendu encore plus probable une nouvelle contraction de l'économie allemande aucoursdupremier trimestrede l'année. Bref, la forte volatilité des données conjoncturelles endébut d'annéenepermet pasdedégagerune ten- dance claire. Au mieux a-t-on l'image d'une économie qui touche le fond, mais qui y reste co- incée. Un rebond semble encore improbable,même s'il y a une vague lumière au bout de ce qui ressem- ble de plus en plus à un très long tunnel. Lamaladie est aussi structurelle et…européenne Enfin, onnepeut passer à côtéd’unquestionnement plus structurel par rapport à l’industrie allemande. Les chocs démographiques, climatiques et géopoli- tiques appellent à un renouvellement de nombreux secteurs.Or, l’Allemagne et plus largement l’Europe ne sont pas en tête de peloton à ce niveau, alors que l’Inflation Reduction Act américain attire de nom- breuses entreprises et provoque une vague d’in- vestissements. Il en faudra donc plus qu’une embellie conjoncturelle pour guérir le malade de l’Europe. Il faudra probablement une thérapie de choc, fondée sur des réformes structurelles. A l’échelle européenne, il faudra avant tout que les politiques climatiques, commerciales et industrielles avancentdanslamêmedirection,plutôtquedecréer des incompatibilités entre les objectifs poursuivis. Comment va lemalade de l’Europe ? O rganised by theMinistry of the Economy, the Luxembourg Cham- ber of Commerce, FEDIL – The Voice of Luxembourg’s Industry and the foundation IDEA, in cooperationwith PwC Luxembourg, this year the Journée de l’Économie (JEcolux 2024) encourages dis- cussion on the theme, “Luxembourg’s com- petitiveness: arewe still in the race? Seizing the opportunities of global change.” Regis- trations for the Journée de l’Économie 2024, taking place in the formof a physical event at the Chamber of Commerce in Luxem- bourg on 26March 2024, are nowopen. Competitiveness is like a country’s secret sauce for doingwell in the great economic game. It’s not just about profit andwealth but also aboutmaintaining a good ranking while preparing for future chal- lenges. It is the linchpin for sustainable growth, in- novation and resilience in an increasingly interconnected global landscape. Imagine it as the superpower in a country’s DNA, which helps it be more innovative, work smarter, be resilient to crises and ready to adapt and evolve. As technology accelerates, trade boundaries shift, and sustainability becomes paramount, a nation’s competitive edge has become synonymouswith its capacity to navigate these changes adeptly. In essence, competitiveness is the compass that guides nations towards a future where adaptability, cre- ativity, and efficiency are not just desirable at- tributes but essential prerequisites for enduring success on the world stage. For countries aiming for a successful and vital future, maintaining – or better, boosting – their competitiveness is crucial. This leads us to the question: “Is Luxembourg still competitive and in the race?” Can we still confi- dently assert that the Grand Duchy has remained the economic “competitor” it has been for some time? Are we seizing the opportunities of global change? These questions and others will form the basis of our discussion together during the 2024 Journée de l’Économie, held on 26 March at the Chamber of Commerce. Join us in a lively discussion as experts dissect Lux- embourg’s current competitiveness.Wewill identify critical success factors from recent years and con- template their role in shaping the Grand Duchy’s trajectory for the future. We will also delve into the realm of innovation and emerging technologies in Luxembourg, exploring thenation’spositioning in tomorrow’s technological landscape and addressing the dual challenge of en- vironmental and digital transformation. Programme and speakers As with every year, this unique event will bring to- gether economists, members of the Luxembourg Government – including the Minister of the Econ- omyLexDelles–aswellasrepresentativesofthepri- vate sector to discuss the current economic climate, themeasures tobe consideredandpotential (drastic) changes to bemade, in order to remain competitive. Wewillbedelightedtowelcomewell-knownspeak- ers who are specialised in the field of competitive- ness, productivity and attractiveness, and can share with us best practices on how theGrandDuchy can become the best in class. Amongother speakers,wewill have theprivilegeof listening to: Lionel Fontagné, anadvisor to theEconomic and In- ternational Cooperation Directorate of the Bank of France andProfessor of Economics at theUniversity Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne and at the Paris School of Economics, has carried out several studies and written several reports on competitiveness, interna- tional trade and investment, tradepolicies and long- term issues, addressing current challenges in the global economy. Professor Fontagnéparticipated in the Journée de l’Économie several years ago to ad- dress Luxembourg’s competitiveness. He is the au- thor of the landmark report “Compétitivité du Luxembourg : Une paille dans l’acier” published in 2005. Itwill thereforebe interesting tohavehis point of viewalmost 20 years later and to assesswithhim the current situation in the country. Wewill alsowelcomeMichele Cincera, Professor of Economics at the Solvay Brussels School of Eco- nomics and Management-ULB, specialising in the economics of science and technology, industrial or- ganisation, andappliedeconometrics. Since2012, he hasdirected the International Center for Innovation, Technology, and Education Studies (iCite). His re- search delves into evaluating innovative activities, nationalinnovationsystems,andpoliciessupporting science and research.Withexpertise inpolicyanaly- sis and supervision of Ph.D. students, he will bring significant contributions tounderstanding competi- tiondynamics and the impact of innovationpolicies. We will also be joined by Serge Allegrezza, ap- pointedDirector of Luxembourg’s statistics bureau Statec inApril 2003 and previously responsible for internalmarket policy andgeneral economic policy at theLuxembourgishMinistryof theEconomyand Foreign Trade. He will provide his insights on the competitiveness of Luxembourg. We will also host several CEOs of the Luxembourg economy and fi- nancial centre. Tofindoutmoreabouttheeventortoshareyourpointofview,visit our website: www.jecolux.lu . This year the conference will start at noon with a Walking Lunch until14:00,theconferencewillfollowwithguestspeakersandpanel discussions throughout the afternoon from 14:00 until 18:00, and close with a Networking Cocktail from 18:00 until 19:00. The con- ferencewillbeheldinEnglish.Thedetailedagendaandcompletelist of speakers will be circulated in a few days. Please note, as always, the proceeds from the registrationwill be en- tirely donated to a deserving organisation. Registration fees for the conference amount to 70 euros. Source:PwCLuxembourg Journée de l’Économie 2024 Luxembourg’s competitiveness: are we still in the race? I nMarch, the economic baro- meter dropped to -7,mar- king the first decline since September. Despite some indi- cations of confidence recovery, the ongoing crisis in the construction sector inLuxem- bourgpersistswithout any signs of abatement, contributing to a deterioration in the overall busi- ness sentiment. In February, confidence within the construction sector of the Grand Duchy experienced a notable decline, reaching a new low of -17.6 points according to Eurostat. The challenges faced by the construction sector in Luxembourg – since the beginning of 2022 – persist and show no signs of improvement. The slowdown was further highligh- ted in the last quarter of the previous year, as demonstrated by a 14% YoY decrease in newmortgages granted (- 17% compared to Q3). The drop was predominantlyfueledbyadecreasein demand for single-family homes, plummeting by 37%YoY in Q4, mar- king its lowest level since 2013. However, the bank lending survey indicates an improving outlook for newhouseholdloans.Thesevenmajor banks surveyed reported a reduction in loan refusals on average, with no planstofurthertightentheircriteriafor home loan approval in the coming months. They anticipate a potential increase inmortgagedemandstarting fromQ12024,whichcouldoffer some relieftothestrugglingconstructionsec- tor. On a positive note, STATEC has lowered its inflation forecast for this year to 2.2% from the previous esti- mate of 2.5%. Nonetheless, inflation might rebound to 3.3% in 2025 after the energy price caps are lifted next January if no new measures are implemented. The Minister of the Economy has stated that the government is considering extending some energy subsidies that aresettoexpire,aimingtomitigatethe impact of rising prices resulting from a reduction in aid. At the EuroArea level, the composite PMI increased from47.9 in January to 48.9 in February.Although remaining belowthecriticalthresholdof50,there are signs that the rate of decline is moderatinginthefirstquarterof2024. Nevertheless, caution remains promi- nentineconomicoutlooks,asnotedby the EuropeanCommission. Factors such as the phasing out energy support schemes, sustained geopolitical tensions, and potential escalationsinMiddleEasternconflicts impactingRedSea routes continue to pose risks. Consequently, growth projections for 2024havebeendown- graded,with theEUnowexpected to see a modest growth of 0.9%, down fromthepreviouslyanticipated1.3%. TheECBhas also revised its forecasts, anticipatingthatinflationwillaverage 2.3% in 2024 and reach the 2% target in 2025. With this adjusted outlook, the possibility of rate hikes could materialise as early as June. During the March meeting, the Fed decided to keep the official interest rates stable in the US. With inflation remaining above the targeted 2%, there is a necessity for clear evidence ofaconsistentdownwardtrendbefore contemplating any rate adjustments. GiventhestrengthoftheUSeconomy, policymakers stressed that there is no pressing need for immediate rate reductions. Theymay seek additional indicators demonstrating the impact ofthehighestUSpolicyrateindecades on the labour market. February's data highlighteda resilient jobmarket, sur- passingeconomists'forecastsby75,000 new job additions. Themonthly PwC barometer, in collaborationwith AGEFI Luxembourg, is an economic confidence indicator that is intended to be a simple and prag- matic tool aimed at capturing the economic atmos- phereoftheGrandDuchyeachmonth. The indicator is based on a number of sentiment indices published monthly by Eurostat and Sentix, which are based on surveys (businesses, consumers or investors/analysts). The indicators used are: consumer confidence (EA foreuroareaandLUXforLuxembourg),industrial confidence(EAandLUX),constructionconfidence (EA and LUX), financial confidence (EA), retail confidence (EA), services confidence (EA) and the SentixIndex(EA). The evolution of the barometer over the past four years isdisplayedonthegraphbelow . PwCMarketResearchCentre, IHSMarkit,Sentix,STATEC The monthly PwC Barometer

RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy Nzk5MDI=