Agefi Luxembourg - décembre 2024

AGEFI Luxembourg 34 Décembre 2024 Fonds d’investissement ParMaximeCARMIGNAC,DirectriceGénérale, CarmignacUK A mesure que le monde du capital-investissement s’est développé – les actifs sous gestion ayant presque qua- druplé au cours de la dernière dé- cennie (1) , les modalités de cession d’une entreprise font de plus en plus débat. A l’abri des regards des mar- chés cotés, les entreprises se concentrent sur la création de valeur à long terme, de plus en plus d’entreprises choisissent une autre voie que l’introduc- tion en bourse. Vendre oune pas vendre ? Naturellement,ladécisiondevendreounon,etàquel moment,dépendd’unemyriadedefacteurs.Cedébat s’est intensifié cesdernières années, d’autant plus que les cessions dans l’univers du capital-investissement se sont avérées plus difficiles. Nous avons connu des marchés publics agités (bien que positifs sur le long terme), un environnement moins favorable aux introductions en bourse, un ra- lentissementdel’activitédesfusions-acquisitions (2) dû à des taux d’intérêt relativement élevés et un coût de ladetteplus élevépour les rachatsd’entreprises par effet de levier. Les gestionnaires de fonds de capital-inves- tissement (GP) ne sont pas étrangers à cette questionàplusieursmillionsdedollars.Une sortiemal gérée peut leur coûter leur répu- tation voire leur commission de surperfor- mance ! Quant aux investisseurs dans les fondsdecapital-investissement(LP),ilsveu- lentgénéralementsavoircommentetquand ilssortirontd’uninvestissement,enparti- culier lorsque la période de détention de cinq ans qu’ils se sont imposée – la norme du secteur – est atteinte. Le problème est le suivant : malgré cetteréférenceàlalégendaire“période dedétentionidéale”,le“bonmoment” pour sortir de l’entreprise peut se faire attendre des années. Les GP ne de- vraient pas être contraints devendreune entre- prise à la hâte, quand bien même l’échéance d’un fonds de capital-investissement approche. Néan- moins, les contraintes de temps légitimes et les be- soins de liquidité des LP placent les GP dans une situation délicate. Auparavant,dansunetellesituation,ungestionnaire de fonds aurait pu se sentir obligé de céder une par- ticipation, même si le moment et les conditions n’étaient pas optimaux, afin de satisfaire ses inves- tisseurs et de respecter les termes du fonds. Ce fai- sant, il n’aurait pasmaximisé la valeur de l’actif. Une ancienne solution à un problème nouveau (oupresque) Heureusement, il existe une autre solution : le mar- ché secondaire. A l’image des marchés secondaires existants pour la quasi-totalité des biens échangea- bles auxquels vous pouvez penser : voitures, télé- phones, maisons, etc. Les entreprises cotées bénéficient également d’unmarché secondaire pro- fond et très sophistiqué, qui apporte davantage de liquiditéet deflexibilité. Encequi concerne les trans- actions secondaires, un prix équitable peut souvent être convenuentre lesparties selon lespriorités et les préférencesde chacun ; tellesqueunbesoinde liqui- dité, un ajustement stratégique d’allocation ou d’ex- position, ou simplement le désir de concrétiser un gain et de réduire les risques. Dans lemarché du capital-investissement, la fiabilité des prix, une structuration plus souple et les nom- breusestransactionsréussiesontfinalementouvertla porte à un marché florissant. Les acteurs du secon- daire se sont sophistiqués, incorporant des méca- nismestelsquel’effetdelevier,despaiementsdifférés ou l’achat avec une décote. Le GP est satisfait de l’opération ; il accueille un nou- veau LP tout en respectant les souhaits de l’ancien, sans dégrader l’actif. Cette transaction s’accompagne souvent d’un engagement primaire dans un fonds nouveau du GP (appelé staple ), ce qui lui permet de soutenirseseffortsdecollecte.Toutcelaenplusderé- soudrelecasse-têted’unesortieprématurée.Enoutre, les LPbénéficient d’avantages bien connus tels que la diversification,despointsd’entréeattractifs,unemeil- leureappréciationduportefeuille,etdeminimiserl’ef- fet redouté de la courbe en J du private equity . Tout le monde est gagnant. Ce n’est que le début Cetaccordbénéfiquepourlesdeuxpartiesarenforcé la confiance dans le marché secondaire. Mais nous n’en sommes qu’au début. Après avoir progressé à un rythme soutenu d’environ 16 % par an pendant dix ans jusqu’en 2023 (3) , les transactions secondaires ont atteint un volume record d’environ 70 milliards de dollars au niveau mondial au premier semestre 2024 (4) . Les transactions secondaires semblent enfin attirerl’attentionetsegénéraliser.Cependant,ellesne représentent encore qu’un pourcent des actifs sous gestion de capital-investissement. De plus en plus d’investisseurs reconnaissent le rôle à la fois central d’un marché secondaire en bonne santé pour le succès à long terme de la classe d’actifs, etégalementavantageuxpourl’ensembledesparties (notamment les participations qui seront vendues à unmomentplusopportun).Lemarchédevraitpour- suivre sa forte croissance. En effet, les fonds secon- daires apportent une réponse probante à l’une des questions lesplus importantes (et lesplus coûteuses) du capital-investissement. 1) Preqinau09/04/24 2) McKinsey&Company,TopM&Atrends in2024 3) EnquêtesecondaireEvercore2023. 4) EvercoreH1 2024 SecondaryMarket Reviewà partir de juillet 2024. Pourquoi le marché du secondaire peut aider à résoudre une question à plusieurs millions de dollars ? By Berenger V IDAL DE LA B LACHE , Managing Director|FinancialIntermediaries&Institutions |Luxembourg,Belgium&France,CapitalGroup C lear tailwinds are gathering behind equitymarkets, pro- viding anupbeat outlook for stocks in 2025. TheUS economy re- mains strong, boostedby healthy labourmarkets, surging business investment and strong profit growth. TheUS Federal Re- serve (Fed) and othermajor central banks have initiated an interest rate cutting cycle, providing an additional tail- wind for financial assets. Againstthisbackdrop,marketsenter 2025amidapost-electionrally in theUS, as investors focus on business-friendly initiatives of the incoming Trump administration. And while ad- vances inartificial intelligence continue togetmost of theheadlines,participationinthemarketrallyhasqui- etlybroadenedacrossindustrials,utilities,healthcare andother sectors, aswell as small-cap companies. “Valuations generally are quite elevated,” says Julian Abdey,anequityportfoliomanageratCapitalGroup. “So, I’ve been trying to strike a balance in portfolios, looking for exposure to leading companies in well recognised areas likeAI, but also seeking opportuni- ties in less scrutinized areas of themarket.” Amix of opportunities and risks Elevated valuations are not the only risk investors mustconsiderin2025.SluggisheconomiesinEurope and China could weigh on prospects for some com- panies,andongoingconflictsinUkraineandtheMid- dle East could agitatemarkets. President-elect Trump’s prioritiesmay include amix oftailwindsandheadwinds.Ontheplussidearepro- posals for tax cuts, increased defence spending and deregulation across a range of businesses, including banks, as well as energy, aerospace, and health care companies. Other Trump policies present challenges for certain industries. Plansfortariffscouldtriggerprotractedtradeconflicts with the country’s top trade partners — and poten- tially reignite inflation. The administration also will likely seek to roll back or dilute subsidies for renew- able energy and electric vehicles. And deportations and immigration restrictions could potentially drive up labour costs, puttingpressure onprofitmargins. “Therewill bewinners and losers, butmany of these policy priorities are complex, and their impact is not alwaysclear,”Abdeysays.“Thesayinggoesthat‘per- sonnel arepolicy’, so theappointmentswill be critical indrivingpolicyoutcomes. In themeantime, I amfo- cused on trends driving growth opportunity andidentifyingcompaniesthatcanbesttake advantage of those opportunities, whether fast-growing tech businesses, old economy companies in cyclical sectors or traditional value sectors, like utilities.” AImay be overhyped, yet bigger than you think Excitementoverthetransforma- tive potential of AI re- mains sky high, as does investmentinthetechnol- ogy.TechgiantsAmazon, Alphabet, Meta and Mi- crosoftareexpectedtocol- lectivelyspend$500billion over the next three years in a race for dominance. The aggressive spending has been compared to excessive internet in- vestments in the late 1990s amid questions about a possibleAI pullback on the horizon. The excitement and the concerns could both be valid. That is becausewe tend tooverestimatemega trends in the short term while underestimating themover the longer term. Consider that early esti- mates for the size of personal computer, mobile phone, internet, and cloud computing markets fell short by an average of 38%. Could AI market esti- mates fall even shorter? “What is remarkable aboutAI is its broad potential utility,” says Mark Casey, an equity portfolioman- ager at Capital Group. “Because it can take on a multitude of human tasks, I consider theAI market to be unknowablymassive.” Inthenear-term,therewilllikelybeovercapacityand excesses as enterprises experiment withAI to deter- mine how to use it for competitive advantage. What’s more, there may not be enough power ca- pacity,basicmaterials,orcapitalequipmentavailable for AI expansion to happen as quickly as many ex- pect,saysCherylFrank,anequityportfoliomanager. “I think there will be two AI cycles,” Frank says. “Nowwe are in themiddleof anadvertising-driven consumer AI cycle, and there will likely be a pull- back. But the enterprise AI cycle will be a much longer and slower build.” When and where will the multibillion-dollar AI spending spree pay off for investors? The answer lies in the four-layer technology stack that enables AI workloads, as well as the supply chain needed forAI infrastructure. TheAI stack in- cludes semiconductors, cloud infrastructure, large language models such as Chat GPT, and applica- tions for end users. Chipmakers like NVIDIA and ASMLoperate at one levelwhile techgiants likeAl- phabet, Microsoft and Amazon seek to dominate multiple layers. “Therewill be successful companies at each layer of the stack, and certain companies are trying to launch successful products at two or even three layers,” Casey says. “The question is, which companies will execute best — and which will stumble. That’s what I am focused on.” But the new technology also relies on old economy resources, including copper, capital equipment and power. Soaring demand for these resources has been a boon for utility, industrial and mining companies. “The four so-called hyperscalers, Al- phabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft, are spend- ing about half of their capex budget on technology and half on buying land, constructing as many data centres as possible near reliable power and locking in long-termcontractswith energy suppli- ers,”Casey says. “That shouldprovide investment opportunity for years.” Forgotten corners of stock market showing life Indeed, the AI build-out, along with other major trends such as the rollout of electric vehicles and reshoringofmanufacturing in theUS, has provided significant opportunity for companies far beyond the tech sector. And that potential is being recog- nised. Market participation broadened beyond the tech sector in the second half of 2024, as dividend payers, value-orientedstocks andsmall caps all out- paced the broader S&P 500. Conditions appear supportive for thisbroadening to continue, with the Fed easing monetary policy and the potential for more favorable regulations among banks, energy andhealth care companies, aswell as likely increaseddefence spendingunder the incom- ing Trump administration. The US Commerce De- partment in November tapped global defense contractor BAE Systems to provide semiconductors used in jets and satellites, for example. Less regulationand thepotential for lower corporate tax rates couldstrengthen free cashflows for a range of dividend-paying companies, enabling them to boost payments. In addition, long-termtrends such as the relocation ofmanufacturing to theUS andAI data centre construction will boost electricity de- mand. For example, CenterPoint Energy is forecast- ing strong growth in 2025 due to booming demand for electricity and natural gas in Texas. “I am looking for opportunities to invest in divi- dendpayers that have been left behind by themar- ket,” says Frank. “These include forgottenpharma, or drugmakers that don’t offer weight loss treat- ments, as well as utilities and select banks and de- fense companies.” Bigmarket trends extend opportunity to small caps Several trends driving opportunity for the largest companies are also doing so among small-cap companies, or businesses with market capitalisa- tions of roughly $6 billion or less. For example, Comfort Systems, a maker of heating and ventila- tion systems, and Modine Manufacturing, which builds cooling systems essential for data centers, have seen demand soar. While mega-cap tech stocks dominatedmarket returns over the last few years, small-cap companies have been trading near their cheapest valuations inmore than 20 years rel- ative to large companies. “Thevaluationdisconnect between small and larger stocks is oneof thehighestwe’ve seen,”Abdey says. “There are a lot of innovative companies reasonably priced relative to larger companies associated with well-known market themes. I believe certain small caps are poised for a comeback.” Capital spending super-cycle extends beyondUS The wave of trends laying the foundation for a capital spending super-cycle in the US is also driving opportunity for nimble European indus- trials. Air travel is now above pre-COVID levels, driving demand for new commercial aircraft. Air- bus, one of only two major manufacturers of planes globally, has a backlog of orders stretching out a decade. France-based Schneider Electric, a leader in the in- dustry, has posteddouble-digit sales growth for the third quarter of 2024 fromglobal data center build- out,which is fuelingdemand for specializedequip- ment.Withinconstruction, agrowingpreference for durable materials that boost energy efficiency and lower costs has created opportunity for chemical makers, such as Switzerland’s Sika. Operating in a fragmented market, Sika is looking to gain market share by using size and scale to its advantage. “These trends represent multi-decade investment opportunities, andwe areonly in the early innings,” says Lara Pellini, an equity portfolio manager at Capital Group. “Europe is home to industrial pow- erhouses solidifying their foothold in areas ripe for potential long-termglobal growth.” Balance will be essential in the year ahead There are clear reasons tobe optimistic about equity investing in 2025. The artificial intelligence build- out, the advancement of life-changingmedicines in thehealthcare sector andaglobal capital investment super-cycle are just a few trends driving opportu- nity for well-run companies across the economy. There are, however, risks, including the loftyvalua- tions ofmany stocks and thepotential for disruptive trade conflicts. The key for investors, says Frank, is to invest selec- tivelywith a long-term focus andmaintain balance in portfolios. “I think it is important to stay fully in- vested, but I ampursuingdiversificationand trying not to be overexposed to any specific trend.” Stock market outlook: AI leads a broadening market