AGEFI Luxembourg - février 2024

Février 2024 19 AGEFI Luxembourg Fonds d’investissement A près un puissant rebond desmarchés à la fin de l'an- née dernière, les valorisa- tions des différentes classes d'actifs semblent tendues. Bien que le scé- nario de base de Schroders sup- pose toujours un atterrissage en douceur aux États-Unis, cette at- tente est désormais largement re- flétée dans les prix des actions, les écarts de crédit et l'anticipation de réductions des taux d'intérêt sur les marchés obligataires. SelonJohannaKyrklund,directricedesin- vestissementschezSchroders,ledéfipour les investisseurs réside dans la vitesse à laquelle les marchés peuvent changer, compte tenu des élections à venir dans 40 pays, d'un environnement géopolitique tenduetdesbanquescentralesquipilotent les atterrissages économiques, autant d'éléments qui contribuent à la volatilité potentielle des marchés. Selon Johanna Kyrklund, la baisse des taux d'intérêt plaide en faveur de l'investissement mais il importe de disposer de stratégies d'in- vestissement flexibles, capables de réagir rapidement à l'évolution des marchés et de tirer parti de nouvelles opportunités d'investissement. Aucoursdutrimestreprécédent,lespréoc- cupationsdesinvestisseurssesontconcen- tréessurleséventuelleshaussesdetauxde laRéservefédérale(Fed).Schroderss'enest écarté en anticipant un plafonnement des tauxd'intérêt.Toutefois,l'évolutionrapide des marchés obligataires indique que les investisseurssontdésormaisdésireuxd'as- sister à un revirement de la part de la Fed. Bien que Schroders ne prévoie pas de baisse significative des taux d'intérêt, le gestionnaire d'actifs britannique a ajusté ses positions en fermant les investisse- ments à long terme et en favorisant les stratégies d'investissement qui bénéfi- cient de la baisse des taux d'intérêt. Cette approche tient comptedesniveauxd'em- ploi élevés, de l'évolution des tendances en matière d'inflation et d'une approche prudente des réductions agressives des taux d'intérêt par la Fed. Pourl'avenir,JohannaKyrklundsouligne l'importance d'évaluer le paysage poli- tique après la 3DReset, en tenant compte de la diversité des circonstances et des défis auxquels sont confrontées les dif- férentes économies. Dans ce contexte, les divergences économiques sont consid- érées comme une opportunité d'in- vestissement : - Les marchés émergents aux politiques plus orthodoxes offrent des perspectives positives pour la dette enmonnaie locale. - La Chine est confrontée à un environ- nement d'investissement déflationniste dans un contexte de crise immobilière, ce qui nécessite une approche prudente de son cycle d'exportation. -LeJaponmaintientsapolitiquederelance en raisonde sonpassédéflationniste et du niveau élevé de sa dette publique. - L'Europe est confrontée à des problèmes decroissance,maisbénéficied'unsystème politique stable et d'une politique fiscale conservatrice. - Grâce au statut du dollar en tant que monnaie de réserve mondiale, les États- Unis disposent d'une plus grande marge de manœuvre pour les politiques de re- lance, mais une possible imprudence budgétaire suscite des inquiétudes. Johanna Kyrklund reconnaît l'évolution duconsensuséconomique,qu'elleattribue aux conséquences de la pandémie et aux bouleversementstechnologiquesencours. Les 3D — démographie, démondialisa- tion et décarbonisation—compliquent la relation entre la croissance et l'inflation. Enfin, Johanna Kyrklund recommande de ne pas se fier aux stratégies d'in- vestissement qui se sont avérées efficaces au cours de ladernière décennie.Au con- traire, il est important de se concentrer sur la reconnaissance des différences et de saisir les nouvelles opportunités offertes par cet environnement économique en constante évolution. L'évolution économique continuant d'être influencée par le comportement humain, lacapacitéd'adaptationetunebonnecom- préhension des tendances émergentes serontessentiellespourlesinvestisseursau cours des prochains trimestres. Naviguer dans l'incertitude des marchés DASHBOARD AGEFI Luxembourg 31-Jan-2024 29-Dec-2023 DIFF % Dow 30 (DJI) 38.150,30 37.689,54 1,22% S&P 500 (GSPC) 4.845,65 4.769,83 1,59% Euro Stoxx 50 4.648,40 4.521,65 2,80% DAX (GDAXI) 16.903,76 16.751,64 0,91% CAC 40 (FCHI) 7.656,75 7.543,18 1,51% FTSE 100 (FTSE) 7.630,60 7.733,20 -1,33% Lux General Index 793,93 887,32 -10,52% Nikkei 225 (N225) 36.286,71 33.464,17 8,43% Shanghai (SHCOMP) 2.788,55 2.974,94 -6,27% US Fed Funds Rate 5,33% 5,33% 0,00% 3 Month US Treasury Rate 5,42% 5,40% 0,02% 5 Year US Treasury Rate 3,91% 3,84% 0,07% EuropeanCentral Bank (ECB) Refinancing Rate 4,50% 4,50% 0,00% 5-Year Eurozone Central Government Bond 2,53% 2,36% 0,17% OECD General Governement/GDP 2022 Japan 254% Italy 148% USA 144% OECD (Total 2021) 121% Brazil 117% France 117% Spain 116% Canada 113% UK 104% OECD (Average 2021) 89% Israel 83% Hungary 77% South Africa 75% Australia 71% Germany 65% Poland 59% Korea 58% Netherlands 54% Sweden 53% Ireland 46% Turkiye 44% Switzerland 38% Denmark 35% Luxembourg 29% 31-Jan-2024 29-Dec-2023 DIFF% Pétrole brut (coût de production) : 1 litre= Barrel (West Texas Intermediate) 0,4400 0,4084 7,75% ǧ West Texas Intermediate (prix en euro par litre) Gaz naturel/Natural gas : 1 m3= 0,0685 0,0805 -14,84% ǧ Natural gas, Henry Hub-I (prix en euro par m3) Gaz naturel/Natural gas : 1MWh= 6,6101 7,7620 -14,84% ǧ Natural gas, Henry Hub-I (prix en euro par MWh) Gaz naturel/Natural gas : 1 MMbtu= 2,1000 2,5100 -16,33% $ Natural gas, Henry Hub-I (prix en $ par MMbtu) Or/Gold : 1 Kg= 60.484,80 60.094,23 0,65% ǧ Or/Gold : 1 oz= 2.039,88 2.062,90 -1,12% $ Argent/Silver : 1 Kg= 679,31 691,28 -1,73% ǧ Argent/Silver : 1 oz= 22,91 23,73 -3,46% $ This dashboard, exclusive toAGEFI Luxembourg, allows the reader: 1° tosee the returns of themainassets and financial indices for thecurrent year 2° tosee onone page the mainstock market indices and interestrates 3° toknow theproductioncost ofseveral energy products ineuros, tocomparewith the retail price 4° toknow thepriceof goldandsilver inkilos and ineuros. 5° to immediatelysee the public date/GDP forseveralsignificant countries By Pierre-Yves JAHAN, Head of FundDistribution and Listing solutions at Carne Group T he evolution of global fund regis- tration has been shaped by the changing landscape of the finan- cial industry, advancements in techno- logy, and an increasing focus on regulatory oversight and investor pro- tection. However, alongwith these advancements, se- veral challenges have emerged: focus on posi- tive target market assess- ment including SFDR preferences, retailization of the end-investors, use of new technologies for efficient pro- tocols, and local rules knowledge for a global coverage.AssetManagers andMana- gement Companies evolving in the fund distribution solutions space, need to em- brace the evolution and challenges associa- tedwith global fund registration. EVOLUTION Globalization of Investments with greater and faster ambitions As financial markets have becomemore intercon- nected, investment funds increasingly seek op- portunities on a global scale. This has led to a growing need for standardized and efficient pro- cesses for fund registration across different juris- dictions. Standardization does have some limits too when reaching a global footprint. Asset Man- agers have to supported by robust knowledges to navigating between the various existing proto- cols: fund passporting, fund recognition, fund no- tification, national private placement regimes,… A successful fund distribution strategy is a bal- anced mix between local funds and cross-border investment products. Regulatory harmonization and standardized no- tifications: Some real successes Efforts have been made to harmonize regulatory requirements across jurisdictions. Initiatives such as UCITS (Undertakings for Collec- tive Investment in Transferable Se- curities) in Europe and the Asia Region Funds Passport inAsia-Pa- cific aimto create amore consistent regulatory framework for cross- border funddistribution. TheAIFM Directive successfully succeed to im- pose regulatory framework, espe- cially forAIFs (Alternative Investment Funds) aiming to target Europeanpro- fessional investors. Various fund notifications pro- cesses are now available: Euro- pean UCITS passport, AIFM marketing passport, national private placement regime, local exemptions,…Moreover,many funds are requesting to be listed on stock exchanges adding complex listing rules.Afund listing shouldbe part of the fund strategy as an additional fund distribu- tion channel. Technological Advancements: RegTech to sup- port SupTech The use of technology has streamlined the fund registration process. Electronic filing systems, digital document management, and online com- munication with regulatory authorities have in- creased efficiency and reduced the administrative burden associatedwith registration. This could be done via the use of RegTech. Regtech refers to the use of technology to help companies complywith regulatory requirements more efficiently and ef- fectively. The latest Luxembourg CSSF online eDesk portal is a strong message to the Asset Management ecosystem on the digitalization and automation of some EU regulators via SupTech innovation. Suptech involves the use of technology by regula- tory authorities and supervisory agencies to im- prove their oversight and monitoring of financial institutions. The Luxembourg regulator even went extra mile by providing direct access via an innovative tech- nology protocol called “S3”. Some providers (like CARNE Select - our third party distribution solu- tions practice-) already leveraged on this technol- ogy for various regulator’s filings. IncreasedScrutinyon Investor Protection: The re- tailization is coming Regulatorybodiesworldwidehaveplaceda greater emphasis on investor protection and evenmore on the non-professional investors. This has led tomore stringent requirements for disclosure, transparency, and risk management in fund documentation, all of which are key components of the fund registra- tion process. On top of the current UK consumer duty, Cross Border Distribution Directive “CBDF”, Packaged retail and insurance-based investment products “PRIIPs” rules or upcoming Retail Investment Strategy considerations, some countries even have specific retail notification regimes (so called full registration in Italy for example) or some local “semi-professional” investors (such as in Germany). CHALLENGES DiverseRegulatory Frameworks: The right ques- tions to ask before a fund registration protocol Different jurisdictions have varying regulatory re- quirements,making it challenging for funds tonav- igate and comply with multiple sets of rules. Harmonization efforts exist, but there is still a lack of a truly global regulatory framework. To ensure a guarantee fund registration success, it is recommended to have a complete and accurate fund registration protocol as being the combina- tion of 6 dimensions: an efficient fund launch, a li- cenced delegate (distributing intermediary), a contracted salesperson, an identified investor (pro- fessional or not), a reviewedmarketing communi- cation and a dedicated secured technology. This helps to ask the right questions to all stakeholders and provides regulatory comfort for an enhanced end-investor protection. The fund registration protocol will take into con- sideration the home regulator rules in addition of the of the host regulator(s) rules (countries of dis- tribution). Complexity of the documentation collection: Central document depository and digitalization Fund registration often involves the preparation of complex documentation such as prospectuses, of- feringmemoranda, and complex regulatory filings (involvingmetadata and naming convention). Co- ordinating andupdating these documents to com- ply with different regulatory standards can be time-consuming and resource intensive. Machine-learning, artificial intelligence, robot process automation are existing and available so- lutions to reduce administrative burden and to flag the needed requirements. An adaptative and relevant technology, brings a pragmatic solution to the fund registration process – to truly succeed to digitalize the needed fund notification rules and allow automatic fund documentation dis- seminations. Costs and Resource Constraints: Focus for 2024 The costs associated with fund registration, in- cluding filing fees and compliance-related ex- penses, can be significant. Smaller fundmanagers may face challenges in allocating resources to comply with regulatory requirements. To match the concept of value for money and to provide a full audit trail of fund registration activ- ity (the registration matrix is the audit milestone of all managers) and transparency of involved costs, the selection of a right fund registration agent partner is key. Changing landscape and risks Regulatory requirements are subject to change (in Europe and globally), and fund managers must stay informed about evolving rules. Adapting to new regulationsmay require additional resources and adjustments to operational processes. Political and geopolitical events can impact regulatory en- vironments. Changes in government policies, trade tensions, or geopolitical uncertainties may introduce additional challenges for cross-border fund registration. In summary, the evolution of global fund regis- tration has been marked by true efforts to stan- dardize processes and enhance investor protection. However, challenges persist, particu- larly related to diverse global regulatory frame- works, complex documentation, and the need for ongoing adaptation to changes in the regulatory landscape. Fundmanagers and service providers continue to work towards solutions that facilitate efficient and compliant global fund registration. Evolution and challenges of the fund registration practice Raising capital with comfort ©Schroders

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