AGEFI Luxembourg - septembre 2023

Analyse de Pierre P UYBASSET et David K RUK , La Financière de l’Echiquier (LFDE) «Comment être un investisseur optimiste en septembre ?» D avid Kruk souligne que la bonne santé de l’éco- nomie américaine conti- nue d’entretenir l’incertitude sur la direction de la politique mo- nétaire, tandis que le ma- rasme chinois n’est pas une bonne nouvelle pour l’économie euro- péenne. La prudence reste donc de mise pour le reste de l’année. La Financière de l’Echiquier (LFDE) a récemment tenu son webinaire « Au Cœur Des Marchés », au retour des vacances pour Pierre Puybasset, porte-parole de la gestion chez LFDE et David Kruk, responsable du trading desk chez LFDE. Ils sont revenus sur les événe- ments marquants de ces deux derniers mois, et ont tracé des pistes pour les prochaines semaines. Dynamisme économique «Après un mois de juillet globalement favorable soutenu par les publications de résultats, le mois d’août a été particulièrement agité, avec des mar- chés qui se sont globalement inscrits en net recul», rappelle David Kruk. «Nous avons notamment connu trois semaines de baisse consécutives pour le Nasdaq, un événement qui s’est rarement pro- duit ces dernières années. L’explication de cette mauvaise passe est à trouver du côté du dyna- misme de l’activité économique aux États-Unis, avec un niveau de surprise économique qui a for- tement grimpé au début du mois d’août. Le consommateur américain continue d’être particulièrement dynamique et résilient, avec de bons chiffres pour les ventes de détail ainsi que pour les indicateurs liés aux cartes de crédit». Décrochage obligataire Ces bonnes nouvelles économiques ont ravivé les craintes d’un combat de long terme pour maintenir l’inflation sous contrôle, avec notamment un taux à 10 ans américain qui s’est tendu pour atteindre 4,35 %. «Ceci s’est également accom- pagné d’un net redressement des cours du pétrole et de cer- taines matières premières ali- mentaires durant le mois de juil- let», constate David Kruk. Suite en page 2 Au cœur des marchés PRIX DU NUMÉRO : EUR 5,50 Le Journal Financier de Luxembourg NUMERO 08/381 ISSN1561-8366 www.agefi.lu 41, Zone Industrielle, L-8287 Kehlen - Tel: +352 305757 1 - Fax: +352 24611564 - Email: agefi@agefi.lu SEPTEMBRE 2023 valuepartners.lu Comprehensive solutions for the alternative investment funds industry " ! -(+%%& 9 :$ Sommaire t Economie La banque de détail marquée par la hausse des taux d’intérêt (EtudeABBL) p.6 t Fonds d’investissement Les signes d’affaiblissement semultiplient en Europe et en Chine (G. WAGNER, Banque de Luxembourg Investments) p.15 GP Stake Funds: a win-win strategy for investors and fund sponsors? (Y.ARBAUT, R. BAU,Allen&Overy) p.16 t Emploi / Droit La gestion des talents : une approche de plusenplusstratégique(PatriziaFRATINI, Sandrine ROUX, BanqueHavilland) p.29 t Informatique financière L’intelligence artificielle dans le secteur financier au Luxembourg (Fondation IDEA) p.47 Sommaire détaillé en page 2 5(*8/$725< &203/Ζ$1&( 6(17Ζ1(/ www.deloitte.lu Détailenpage11 By Jean-Bernard DUSSERT, Partner, Transfer Pricing, EY Luxembourg T he Luxembourg Go- vernment has propo- sed a major overhaul of the country’s investment tax credit (ITC) regime in a draft law (the Draft Law) amending article 152bis of the amended law of 4 December 1967 on income tax. The changes, which are expected to come into effect in 2024, are designed to make the ITC more at- tractive to businesses and to encourage in- vestment in key areas such as digital transfor- mation and the ecological and energy transition. Current scope and application of the ITC The current ITC regime provides an incentive to businesses in the form of a tax credit for specific investments made in tangible assets other than buildings and in software. The credit is calcu- lated as a percentage of the investment amount and can be used to offset a company’s corporate income tax liability. The investment must be made by a Luxembourg entity but can be de- ployed across the European Economic Area. The current regime has two components that can be applied simultaneously, that being a comple- mentary ITC and a global ITC. The complemen- tary ITC of 13% is calculated on the increase in investments in qualifying assets made during a given tax year, in comparison to the average net book value of qualifying assets over the last five years. The global ITC of 8% up to the first tranche of 150,000 euros and of 2% for the tranche exceeding this amount is granted for the acquisition of qualifying new investments during a given tax year. In consequence, entities that typically do not heavily invest in tangible assets did not benefit much from the effects of the current ITC regime. Proposed changes and their opportunities for businesses investing in the transition to amore sustainable economy The Draft Law abolishes the complementary ITC and in- creases the rate of the global ITC from 8% to 12%, while removing the investment bracket of 150,000 euros. Most importantly however, the Draft Law intro- duces a new ITC on qualifying investments and, unlike the current regime, also on expenses in- curred by Luxembourg companies as part of their digital transformation or ecological and en- ergy transition. The Draft Law defines digital transformation as a process or organizational in- novation by means of implementing and using digital technologies. Ecological and energy transition covers material changes of a technical nature or concerning equipment that reduces the environmental im- pact in the production or consumption of energy or usage of resources, such as decarbonization, re- duction of emissions or the reuse of products, as well as the possibility to store renewable energies. The Draft Law contains a list of objectives that in- vestments and expenses must fulfill to be eligible for this new ITC. Qualifying objectives for digital transformation include, for example, redefining the entire production process of a company by substantially improving its productivity energy efficiency or significantly redefining the entire range of services provided by a company to cre- ate new value for the company’s stakeholders. The objectives listed in the context of the ecolog- ical and energy transition include, for instance, to significantly improve the energy efficiency in a production process by saving at least 20% of the energy used or to decarbonize a production process to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 40%. The rate of the new ITC is set at 18%, except for investments in tangible depreciable assets for which the credit will be 6%. However, given that these investments are expected to also qualify for the 12% global ITC, they will still benefit from an overall ITC of 18%. Continued on page 5 The new investment tax credit in Luxembourg: Aboon for the financial sector? Lire article en page 9 LUXEMBOURG Boostez votre processus de reporting réglementaire ! valuepartners.lu ONE MISSION. YOURS. PRIVATE EQUITY - de vous à moi La rubrique mensuelle du Private Equity Lireenpage20 par Laurent C APOLAGHI et Renaud L ABYE , EY Luxembourg Key Takeaways: - The PwC Business Barometer dropped to -11 in July, rebounding to -8 inAugust at June levels. - Rising summer prices in the previous months – but especially the most recent surge in fuel costs – continue to drive inflation in Luxembourg upwards, from 3.2% in June to 4.2% in August. A further wage indexation has been implemented on the first of September. - The Euro Area's economic outlook worsened during August as new business declined for the third straight month. This is the fastest rate of decline since November 2020, and has affected both manufacturers and service providers. - Global economic outlook remain cautious, with IMF projections anticipating a particularly pronounced growth slowdown among advan- ced economies. The Monthly PwC Barometer (FRQRPLF &RQILGHQFH LQGLFDWRU LQ FROODERUDWLRQ ZLWK $*(), /X[HPERXUJ Rising inflation fuels concerns in Luxembourg Read more on page 9 www.pwc.lu TIF u/EL a.e ef gency on and or der f F?