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If one used the old analogy of a roller coaster to describe the behaviour
of global bond markets, we are currently experiencing one of those pauses
designed to lull the passenger into relaxing prior to a strong burst of
activity designed to set the pulse racing. Obviously the yield shifts across
1993 to 1996 represented the main thrills and spills, with 1997 to date
(currencies aside) proving to be more akin to the local park slide. But
just as many are preparing to disembark, after a fairly quiet year so far,
we anticipate a further twist designed to throw the unwary investor off
track. However, rather than seeing all markets move largely together, as
so often in the past, we anticipate a de-coupling toward the end of 1997,
and into 1998.
Over the last few years the...
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