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Essay on the current and expected situation of the business cycle around the world after the sanitary crisis, International Economics and Business Cycles 2019-2020, directed by Professeur Christian Ost, ICHEC Brussels Management School
There is no doubt that the world entered the contraction phase of the business cycle in February 2020, after a 11-year expansion that lasted much longer than the previous expansions since World War II (between 12 and 105 months in the US) (1).
Since we are still in the Covid-19 pandemic, probably in the last phase (from a peak of 14.33% world daily death increases on April 15 down to 0.73% on August 24) (2), it is impossible to calculate the economic effects of the lockdowns imposed in so many countries. But several...
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