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By Norman VILLAMIN, Group Chief Strategist, Union Bancaire Privée (UBP)
US recession has been a concern among global investors going back to 2022. However, none has materialised as yet and economic conditions through late 2024 continue to suggest that the United States will once again avoid recession in 2025.
We expect the US economy to slow modestly in early 2025 before stabilising towards year-end. Inflation however, which has been on a downward trajectory throughout 2024, will likely find its bottom early in the year and rebound to above 2.5% by year-end, even without the impact of the expected fiscal policies of incoming US President Donald Trump.
As a result, we expect that the autumn Fed Summary of Economic Projections...
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