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The current economic cycle in Europa is not as old as the one in the US. Yet, there are signs of a weakening of the economy, for example the trend in new orders in Germany, the largest economy in the eurozone.
This is bad news for the economy, but just how bad? The VP Bank Eurozone recession barometer compares todays situation with similar ones in the past. And so we can conclude, that the probability of a recession in the Eurozone has risen sharply. The latest reading shows a probability 28 % which is already higher than just before the euro crises. Readings of well over 50 % would be a strong indication of an imminent recession.
The monthly reading is very much relevant for the Swiss Economy as well. More than 40 % of Swiss exports are sold to...
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