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By Andrew McCaffery, Global Chief Investment Officer, Fidelity International
Inflation has been falling over the year and markets are proving resilient. These are good signs, which have prompted Fidelity International to improve its base case for 2024 to a soft landing, where growth settles around trend, according to its second quarter 2024 investment outlook.
We came into Q4 2023 believing that a cyclical recession, featuring a moderate economic contraction followed by a return to growth, was the most likely scenario for 2024. As the year started, and now with three months in, markets are more positive - and so are we. We continue to think through a scenario lens, tracking leading economic indicators alongside the on-the-ground insights of...
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