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Commentary from Norman VILLAMIN, Group Chief Strategist at Union Bancaire Privée (UBP)
The Hamas invasion of southern Israel over the weekend, while an eruption of an on-going regional conflict and humanitarian crisis has the potential to expand to a prolonged conflict that historically has been a headwind for global equity markets.
A look back at the impact of such geopolitical conflicts – ranging from coups/assassinations, to terrorist events, and including cross border wars between nation-states – on the SP 500 going back to 1940, in aggregate they suggest modest upfront impact of such events which dissipate quickly (please see Russia-Ukraine: Implications for Global Markets, March 2022 for more details).
However,...
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