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By Elida RHENALS, portfolio manager, AXA IM
President Donald Trump’s proposed fiscal agenda is unequivocally inflationary, reflecting increased government spending and tax reforms aimed at stimulating economic activity. Donald Trump has discussed the key economic themes for a second term: migration, tariffs, fiscal easing and deregulation.
However, we consider tariffs and migration restriction to be supply shocks and fiscal easing to be a demand boost. This is likely to see US inflation reaccelerate – perhaps sharply depending on scale and pace of tariffs. We forecast an eye catching 2.8% of inflation in 2025, well above market expectation. In terms of growth, depending on financial market reaction, we expect US activity to remain solid into...
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