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The next six months look tough, but a bigger test awaits further out
By Frederik Ducrozet, Head of Macroeconomic Research Pictet Wealth Management, Jean-Pierre Durante, Head of Applied Research Pictet Wealth Management, Julien Holtz, Emerging Market Strategist Pictet Wealth Management, Axel Roserens, Junior Economist Pictet Wealth Management
Natural gas stores, consumption-reduction measures and temperatures will be key in determining Europe’s fate this winter. In our base-case scenario of a full cut-off of Russian gas flows and normal temperatures, the EU could just about get through the winter months without having to resort to rationing, albeit with regional differences. Should it be a colder-than-average winter, some rationing...
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