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The beauty of procrastinating writing a year ahead outlook is that you can use more up-to-date assumptions in your forecast. Outlooks from the sell-side (and some buy-side too) started arriving in early-November. Assuming it took them a few days to write, edit and have it approved by compliance, it is possible that some of them were written while US treasuries were yielding close to 5%, about 1% higher than they are now.
The massive rally in core rates throughout most developed markets since then begs the question of whether those return targets or views are still valid. The 'higher for longer' mantra quickly gave way to expectations of rate cuts from most developed market central banks by mid-2024.The base case macroeconomic scenario for 2024 is favourable as...
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