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By Willem Verhagen, Senior Economist at ING Investment Management
What we are seeing in Portugal is an increase reform fatigue. Of course this had been brewing for quite some time in view of the protests but now it has led to clear signs of corrosion in the governing coalition. As in any peripheral country the constituent parties are probably constantly making a calculation of what would serve them best. There may be a strong reason to remain in the coalition even though it takes unpopular measures because near term elections may result in a significant fall in a party’s share of the vote to the benefit of more populist parties. However, at some point a party may decide its interests are served best by defecting. Openly doing so may increase their share of the...
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