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Comment by Frederik Ducrozet, Head of Macroeconomic Research and Nadia Gharbi, Senior Economist, at Pictet Wealth Management on the US macroeconomic outlook.
ECB preview: banking on policy transmission
A backward-looking ECB could still deliver a 50bp rate hike on Thursday, focusing on sticky core inflation, strong nominal wage growth, and little evidence of financial spillovers from last month's bank turmoil. However, a forward-looking ECB should move from cautiously from here, in our view, stepping down to 25bp rate hikes in full data-dependance mode, following three 50bp increases in policy rates so far this year.
Importantly, today's credit and inflation data look consistent with the view that the ECB's...
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