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By Mark DOWDING, CIO at BlueBay Asset Management
Lockdown measures cause further downward revisions to growth forecasts as the global economy experiences a sudden and severe contraction. Growth estimates vary widely, but it seems sensible to think that output may fall by as much as 30% during the period that such measures are in place. A rebound may then be expected to occur once restrictions are eased. However, there remains much debate as to how quickly life can return to ‘normal’, given worries that there may be a subsequent acceleration in infection rates.
Consequently, growth forecasts for 2020 as a whole seem to be in the ballpark of -5% year-on-year, but the reality is that we continue to deal with a fast-moving and unpredictable...
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