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vendredi 1 septembre 2023

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Fax du vendredi 1 septembre 2023 - Tous les titres

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Hedging the recession risk

By Chris IGGO, Chair of AXA IM Investment Institute and CIO, AXA IM Core The gap between corporate bond index yields and overnight interest rates is as narrow as it gets. Rates have gone up, and credit spreads have narrowed in recent months, with the mini-banking crisis in March proving to have been a great buying opportunity. A soft-landing with no major corporate distress with the Federal Reserve (Fed) keeping rates high for a prolonged period could mean the gap remains very narrow. Yet a hard landing is a non-negligible risk. If economic data weakens, and crucially the US labour market softens, then risk premiums are likely to widen and interest rate expectations for 2024 will fall. There are opportunities to construct a hedged position in...

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