Agefi Luxembourg - décembre 2025

AGEFI Luxembourg 34 Décembre 2025 Fonds d’investissement A s global supply chains face ri- sing pressure from resource scarcity, regulation, and geo- political tensions, circularity is no longer a sustainability aspiration— it is becoming a strategic and fi- nancial necessity. But what do investors need to see before circularity can truly scale? Circularity as a strategic imperative The circular economy has moved far beyond niche sus- tainability discussions. It now sits at the crossroads of com- petitiveness,resilience,andinno- vation.As industries navigate tightening regulations, cost volatility, and fragile supply chains, circularity provides a practical framework for long-term value creation. It offers companies away to reduce depen- dency on scarce resources, secure critical inputs, and turnwaste into economic opportunity. For investors, circularity is less about a structural revolution andmore about pragmatic riskmanage- ment. It reflects a growingneed tomitigate resource volatility,regulatoryexposure,andreputationalrisk. Rather than being an abstract thesis, circularity is becoming a measurable lever for operational effi- ciency and long-term resilience. Fromlinear to circular: redefining value For over a century, global production has been built ona simple logic: take,make, dispose. That systemis now under strain. Each year, more than 100 billion tons of materials are extracted, and most are used only once. Circularity offers a new logic —one that designswasteoutofthesystembykeepingmaterials inuseattheirhighestpossiblevalueandregenerating naturalecosystems.Thisapproachredefineswhatef- ficiencymeans. Insteadof extractingmore, it’s about extracting value differently. It requires companies andinvestorstorethinkproductsaslong-termassets, not one-time consumables, and to explore business models such as “product-as-a-service” that link per- formance to reuse, repair, and return. Competitiveness, not compliance In Europe, this evolution is accelerating. The EU GreenDeal andCircular EconomyActionPlanhave embeddedcircularity into theheart of industrial pol- icy. But regulation alone doesn’t explain itsmomen- tum. The real catalyst lies in geopolitical and economicpressures.Dependenceoncriticalrawma- terials—lithium,cobalt,nickel—hasexposedstruc- tural vulnerabilities in Europe’s supply chains. Circularity strengthens resilience and sovereignty, keepingresourcescirculatingwithinlocaleconomies and reducing exposure to global shocks. According to European Commission estimates, circular busi- ness models could generate €600 billion in annual savings and add €1.8 trillion in GDP by 2030. For companies and investors alike, circularity is not about compliance, no longer a policy aspiration; it’s about staying competitive in a resource-constrained world, being a strategic necessity. Financing circularity: Opportunitymeets friction This strategic shift is already translating into tangible financial innovation.Across Europe, circular projects areattractingprivateequity,venture,andsustainabil- ity-linked finance. Yet, capital flows remain uneven. While early-stage ventures often benefit from strong backing, many face a “valley of death”when scaling — too mature for grants, but too small or asset-light for institutional investors. The challenge is structural: circular models often rely on leasing, sharing, or ser- vice-based revenue streams that lack collateral. As a result, financial innovationmust catch upwith busi- nessinnovation.Blendedfinancesolutions,public-pri- vate partnerships, and risk-poolingmechanismswill be crucial tounlock growth at scale. FromESGto circular value Asthistransitionunfolds,circularityisalsoreshaping thebroadersustainabilityagenda.WhereESGframe- works focused on policies and disclosure, circularity focuses on performance and outcomes. It links envi- ronmentalimprovementdirectlytoprofitability,low- ering input costs, stabilising supply chains, and enhancingbrandresilience.It’snolongeraboutticking boxes;it’saboutbuildingeconomiclogicintosustain- ability.Sustainabilitywasoftenconceptual;circularity gives it a price and a return. This alignment between ecologicalandfinancialperformanceispreciselywhat investorshavelongsought.Itturnssustainabilityfrom a cost centre into a source ofmeasurable returns. Closing the gaps: What investors need to see Tomake circularity fully investable, threeen- ablersmustcometogether.First,ashiftinper- spective, recognising that circularity begins at the design stage and extends through the entirevaluechain.Second,newfinancialin- struments that de-risk early innovation and link returns to circular outcomes. And third, transparent, comparable metrics that help investors assess re- source efficiency, lifecycle perfor- mance, and resilience. With these elements in place, circularity moves fromconcept to capital-ready reality. Europe’s next chapter: Frominnovation to scale Europehastheknowledgeandtechnologytoleadthe circular transition. What’s needed now is coordina- tion,amongcorporates,policymakers,andfinanciers. Standardising circularity metrics, pooling risk, and sharingdatatransparentlycantransformfragmented initiativesintoscalablemarkets.Thisrequiresnotonly innovationbutalsoexecutionandstorytelling:turning technical potential into investable confidence. The re- gionsandinstitutionsthatmasterthisbalancewillde- fine the next decade of sustainable growth. Circularity is investable—and inevitable Circularityhasmaturedfromasustainabilityconcept into a core investment theme. It brings together envi- ronmental performance, competitiveness, and re- silience,thethreeelementsthatdefinelong-termbusi- ness success. For investors, the opportunity is clear: circularity is not only investable, but also inevitable. Thosewhoactearlywillnotonlyprotectvalue—they willshapethenextfrontierofsustainableprofitability Circularityisnotatrend.Itisthenewfoundationfor lasting value . KeyTakeaways - Circularity is shifting from policy aspiration to a mainstreaminvestment driver. - It enables companies to reduce risk, optimise re- sources, and enhance competitiveness. - Financing remains fragmented — innovative, blended instruments are needed to bridge the “val- ley of death.” - Investors increasingly seek performance-based evi- dence of circular value creation. - Europe’s opportunity lies in scaling innovation through collaboration and standardisation. ThisarticledrawsoninsightssharedduringaLuxFLAGThoughtLead- ershipdiscussionheldon10September2025onthetopic“MakingCir- cularityInvestable–WhatInvestorsNeedtoSee.” Sources:CGRFinance(CircularityGapReport2024) UNEP,GlobalWasteManagementOutlook2024 IsabelleDELAS, ChiefExecutiveOfficer,LuxFLAG ViolaSTROTZ, SeniorCommunications&MarketingOfficer,LuxFLAG Co-authors: Dr. Oliver Heiland, Managing Director, Capital for ResilienceAdvisors&BlancaHidalgo,ESGManager,Environmen- tal Engineer, EY, Luxembourg Making Circularity Investable: From policy aspiration to financial opportunity ByAmaury D’ORSAY, head of the Fixed Income platform at Amundi 2 026 is a year that will be characteri- zedby further business resilience to tariffs and globally easymone- tary policies, both ofwhich should sustain increased economic acti- vity and extend the cycle fur- ther. In a fixed income context, public debt levels in developed economieswill continue to rise, and there are several structural geopolitical frictions to consider aswell. US growth has held up well despite ongoing policy uncertainties. In Eu- rope,thegrowthmomentumhaseased from its strong start in 2025 due to weaker domestic demand but is also broadly resilient. Overall, in terms of outlook, we maintain a positive viewon the currentmarket environment. Withrespecttoinflation,globalmedium-termtrends, suchas reshoringand the energy transition,will gen- erate price pressures along with shorter-term forces, including tariffs, that will continue to filter through the economy. These effects will be compensated by lower wage pressure in a context of less dynamic job markets.Overall,weexpectinflationriskstobelower intheEU,wheretheECBisexpectedtohititsinflation target.Inflationexpectationshavesofarremainedan- chored due to the credibility that central banks have built up for decades. However, any sign that central bankers are bending topolitical pressure couldmake real rates stabilize at higher levels thanwhat was the normover the last couple of decades. Market trendswill also be influenced by con- cerns about highdebt levels in theUS and in other major developed economies. These worries should continue to push term pre- mium higher. In the US though, the end of QTandtheUSadministration’sdesiretopre- vent government yields from rising too far or too fast by managing actively their issuance program, should moderate the pressure at the long end. US bond yields have decreased in antic- ipation of rate cuts. We believe the weakeninglabormarketwarrantsFed cutsdownto3.25%,butthemarketis periodicallypricingincutstobelow 3%bytheendof2026.Monetary policythisdovish,inourview, would increase inflation and increase the term premium. This backdrop calls for a dis- ciplined, tactical approach to duration, as yields will likely stay range- bound throughout the year. Inflation becomes a key call, favoring breakevens, while steepening opportunities will continue to emerge,especiallyiftheFedprovesmoredovishthan weexpect.Wethinkthattheweakerdollarandtariffs alonecouldboostUSinflation,whiledemandwillbe stimulatedbyexpansionaryfiscalandmonetarypol- icy andhigher investment. Thedecline in10Ybreak- evens to 2.25% should reverse, with a return to the 2.5%peaks of the past two years looking possible. In Europe, growth momentum has eased from its strong start in 2025. With inflationary pressures eas- ing, growth below potential, and decelerating wage growthreducingsecond-roundinflationrisks,Euro- pean central banks will likely maintain an accom- modativestance;theECB,inourview,islikelytoease morethanmarketscurrentlyexpect,towards1.5%by mid-2026. On the positive side, higher infrastructure anddefense spending, especially inGermany, could addupsiderisktoouroutlook,butinthefaceofweak external demand, growth will depend on domestic demandresilience,andmonetary-policysupportwill becrucialalongwitheffectivepolicyimplementation. With ECB easing more than markets are currently pricing and Fed easing less (if political pressure is nottoostrong),Europeanbondsshouldoutperform Treasuries. This can further support the repatriation of assets by European investors and rising demand from international investors willing to diversify into an expanding market with more predictable fiscal rules. Within Europe, we are even more optimistic about peripheral governments. Fiscal discipline in Italy and Spain could allow spreads relative to Germany to continue narrowing and it is possible that the Italy-Germany 10Y spread falls below 70bp, while the Germany-Spain spread mayreach40bp.WealsoseeopportunitiesineuroIG credit, particularly in financials. In other parts of theworld: -Japan: Japanshouldswitchtoamoresupportivefis- cal stance under the new PM Takaichi, and the next SupplementaryBudget(FY25)shouldseelowertaxes. ABoJhikebytheendof2025orearly2025isstillalive andJapaneseratesshouldstayunderrisingpressure. - UK: The UK government may need to cut over GBP 30Bn by FY29-30 to comply with fiscal rules, should the Office for Budget Responsibility signifi- cantly downgrade its productivity assumptions. In this context andwith signs of aweakening jobmar- ket and wage inflation calming down, BOE has ample room to cut rates as it has lagged the global easing cycle in 2025. - EM local debt should remain supported as EM Central banks continue to cut rates, albeit at a slower pace than in 2025 and inflation is still on a down- ward path. Weseevalueininvestmentgradecreditonbothsides of the Atlantic, even though spreads against bench- mark government bonds have already shrunk this year.Onthehighyieldfront,however,wethinkalit- tlecautioniswarranted.Diversificationandhedging, as usual, will allow investors to mitigate risks while making themost of the opportunities that new tech- nologywill bring next year. Lookingaheadandsummarizing,themarketcould lack direction for duration trades but there will be manyopportunitiesinrelativevaluetrades. Weare positive on EUperipheral debt, German 10Y bunds, and Gilts vs. Treasuries. We prefer European bonds to US Treasuries since anticipated ECB cuts and an expanding European bondmarket should draw in- vestor demand. UK gilts also look attractive relative to US Treasuries, while euro-area peripherals offer the strongest conviction given yield pickup and im- proving fundamentals. We also continue to favor Investment Grade credit since spreads still offer reasonable value versus swaps, and disciplined issuance means credit will benefit at least fromcarry, and possible further cap- ital gains. By contrast, both US and European high- yield credit could be vulnerable. This will be particularlytrueifthereisalossofmomentuminthe forcesthathavekepttheeconomyandmarketsturn- ing so far. From an asset allocation perspective, we remainagileondurationandselectivewithinfixed income , maintaining a neutral-to-slightly short stanceonsovereigns, butwitha clear overweight on investment grade credit,where risk-adjustedreturns remain attractive. 2026, the return of opportunities in bond markets S elon les spécialistes de J. Safra Sara- sin, les marchés en 2026 évolueront dans un environnement marqué par une incertitude durable, l’essor de l’intel- ligence artificielle (IA) et des politiques budgétaires expansionnistes, imposant une sélectivité accrue aux investisseurs. En 2025, l’économiemondiale a surpris par sa rési- lience face aux hausses historiques des droits de douane américains et aux tensions géopolitiques, grâce à une modération de la politique commer- ciale américaine, à l’essor des investissements liés à l’IA et à la solidité de la consommation des ménages aisés aux États-Unis. Ces soutiens devraient se prolonger en 2026, renforcés par une relance budgétaire marquée. Les États-Unis creu- seront leur déficit à l’approche des élections demi- mandat, tandis que la zone euro misera sur des dépenses accrues en défense et en infrastructures. En Asie, la Chine et le Japon soutiendront la consommation. Si ces politiques stimulent la crois- sance à court terme, elles ravivent les inquiétudes sur la soutenabilitédesdettespubliques et les effets à long terme de la montée des gouvernements populistes. Après plusieurs années de fortes per- formances, lesmarchés actionsoffrent desperspec- tives plusmodérées et très différenciées. Les États-Unis restent portés par l’IAmais pâtissent devalorisations élevées, tandis que l’Europebénéfi- cie de valorisations plus attractives et d’un contexte enamélioration. La Suisse et le Japon conservent un rôle de diversification. Sur le marché obligataire, le portageprimera,lestauxrestantglobalementstables. Enfin, les marchés émergents devraient poursuivre leur reprise, soutenuspar undollar plus faible,mal- gré une volatilité persistante dans certaines régions. Investir dans unmonde enmutation