Agefi Luxembourg - mars 2026

Mars 2026 27 AGEFI Luxembourg Fonds d’investissement Par Yanxiu GU, gérante du fonds ODDO BHF China Equity Stars, chezODDOBHFAM A près trois années de marché baissier, la Chine redevient attractive pour les inves- tisseurs. Le tournant est survenu fin sep- tembre2024,lorsquePékinalancé un plan de relancemassif, combi- nant mesures monétaires, fiscales et réglementaires, avec un accent particulier sur le marché des actions. Résultat : en 2025, lemar- ché boursier chinois a progressé d’environ 28%enmonnaie locale et 13 % en euros ( source : indice MSCI ChinaAll Shares ). La reprise est portée par l’amélio- ration de la liquidité et un regain de confiance envers les actifs chi- nois. Goldman Sachs note que hedge funds mondiaux, fonds de marchés émergents et investis- seurs internationaux ont accru leur exposition à la Chine, tandis que les ménages et assureurs locaux réorientent leurs avoirs vers les actions. Legouvernement chinois semble déterminé à déve- lopperlesmarchésfinancierspour restaurer la confiance, compenser les pertes liées à la crise immobi- lière et créer une richesse durable pour lesménages. Une année de renouveau et d’innovation 2025 a été marquée par des avan- cées technologiques majeures. Le lancementdumodèlelinguistique DeepSeek a montré la capacité d’innovation rapide et abordable de la Chine. Selon l’Australian Strategic Policy Institute, le pays est désormais leader dans 57 des 64 technologies clés, de l’intelli- gence artificielle à la biotechnolo- gie et l’informatique quantique. DJI à Shenzhen produit 70 % des drones mondiaux ( source : New York Times ), et les biotechnologies chinoisescommercialisentuntiers desmédicamentsinnovantsmon- diaux ( source : Jefferies ). La Chine se positionne ainsi pro- gressivement comme une puis- sance technologique mondiale, dépassant l’image d’« usine du monde ». Consommation et dynamisme local La consommation, plus lente à se redresser,montrenéanmoinsdes signes encourageants : boutiques de luxe, thés aux perles et marques locales séduisent les jeunesurbains. Le tourisme inter- national profite de la simplifica- tion des visas pour 55 pays, tan- dis que les produits culturels chi- nois, comme le jouet Labubu, suscitent l’intérêt mondial. Des signaux positifs du gouvernement La rencontre entre Jack Ma et Xi Jinping a symbolisé un soutien renouvelé au secteur privé. Parallèlement, la politique « anti- concurrence excessive » cherche à stabiliser les rendements des entreprises et à renforcer les fon- damentaux économiques, offrant un cadre plus sûr pour les inves- tisseurs. Valorisation et géopolitique Malgré des tensions autour des terres rares et d’autres enjeux géo- politiques, la Chine reste straté- gique. Les actions chinoises se négocient avec une décote d’envi- ron 40 % par rapport aux valeurs américaines et offrent des rende- mentssurfluxdetrésorerieattrac- tifs( source:Bloomberg ).Cettediver- gence entre valeur intrinsèque et prix de marché représente une opportunitépour les investisseurs à long terme. Perspectives à long terme La Chine évolue vers une écono- mie technologique et autosuffi- sante, avecdes entreprisesdeplus en plus compétitives au niveau mondial. Le vieillissement de la population et l’essor de nouvelles tendances de consommation créent de nouvelles opportunités. Pour les investisseurs européens, le pays offre diversification, croissance structurelle et exposi- tion à des thèmes stratégiques, tout en nécessitant une analyse attentive des risques spécifiques (marché, réglementaires, change et émergents). La Chine, un choix incontournable pour les investisseurs européens Shanghai©Freepik By Melinda PERERA and Claire PROSPERT, Linklaters Luxembourg F inancing of alternative funds has been undergoing a transfor- mation in recent years through developments such as the shift of NAV finance from a niche to the mainstream, the gro- wing role in the sector of pri- vate credit funds, insurers and other non-bank lenders, and the consequent increase in competition between len- ders, according to speakers at the Fund FinanceAssocia- tion’s recent 15thAnnual Glo- bal Fund Finance Symposium at Miami Beach. Industry members reported that NAV facilities – once a relatively unusual and bespoke form of fi- nancing – are today increasingly in demand from managersof privateequity, infrastructure, real estate and fund of funds structures. For fund sponsors, it offers a tool not only to manage the timing of exits andLPliquidity,buttopursuestrategicgoalsinclud- ing financing of follow-on and add-on acquisitions, and undertaking value creation and asset enhance- ment initiatives later in a fund’s life. A typical fund citedmightbebetweenthreeandfiveyearsintotheir lifecycle, with up to 90%of its capital called. Panellists said theNAVfinancemarket has broad- ened to encompass both bank and non-bank lenders, andwhile lending arrangements typically incorporate customised features, the sector’s ex- pansion has encouraged increasing standardisa- tion of structures, documentation and covenant frameworks. This has helped LPs understand and engage with funds’ use of NAV facilities, in part as GPs address investor education, but also prompting a greater focus on transparency; rather than being an obstacle to accessing NAV finance, a trend to obtain approval from a fund’s limited partner advisory committee is viewed as good governance practice rather than an obstacle to be overcome. There has also been increased demand for ratings, with agencies increasingly involved in NAV trans- actions byproviding investorswith riskassessments and a voice of caution deterring excessive leverage. Ratingmethodologies evaluate both theprobability and severityof default, taking intoaccount earnings sufficiency, loan to value ratio and diversification, as well as the manager’s track record and fund ser- vice provider capabilities. For GPs, the advantages include the potential for greater leverage of investment values, and in- creased flexibility at a time when exits are taking longer. Symposiumparticipants also reported the emergence of hybrid financing from the conver- gence between subscription lines and NAV facili- ties, and expect increased competition between finance providers to exert downward pressure on pricing. Speakers reported that NAV finance was particularly in demand from infrastructure funds, real estate funds using facilities to provide addi- tional financial support against the background of a market downturn, and funds of funds. Industry members say NAV facilities are now the main area of growth in fund financing and are ap- proaching themature subscription linemarket, still the biggest segment, in terms of both size andmar- ket acceptance. At the same time, private credit providers are increasingly meeting demand for structured products including general partner and management company facilities, while commercial banks are playing a great role inNAV facilities. Speakers and panellists in Miami Beach also high- lighted the entry into the fund finance market of non-bank lenders including capital from private credit funds and insurance entities’ balance sheets, across subscription lines, NAV facilities and hybrid structures, opening up the asset class to rating-de- pendent institutional capital. These new entrants often provide greater flexibility to borrowers on se- curity, covenants and cash-flowarrangements, and are financing all types of assets, whereas in the past theymight have been limited tomainstream assets suchas real estate and infrastructure. Fundsponsors benefit from a wider choice of providers, more be- spoke arrangements, more competitive pricing and greater speed and certainty of access to liquidity. These developments are feeding into the emer- gence of a more mature, international and com- petitive fund finance market across North America, Europe, the Middle East and Asia-Pa- cific.A theme commonworldwide ismore intense competition, leading to margin compression for lenders, alongside the development of domestic markets in Asia, new regulatory initiatives in the US and Europe, including the latest iteration of the EU’s Capital Requirements Directive, and in- creased demand from investors for transparency. Throughout the world, fund sponsors have an on- goingneed for liquidity solutions,which the lending market is constantly evolving to satisfy. In theAsia- Pacific region, NAV finance has only recently be- come anacceptedproduct,whereas hybrid facilities havebeenestablished for longer. Inaddition, speak- ers said that unlike the effective single markets of US and Europe, the region is more fragmented, led byAustralia along with the highly developed pan- regional markets of Singapore andHong Kong. Japan has recently seen the creation of a gov- ernment-approved model limited partner- ship agreement featuring lender-friendly provisions similar to those in the US and Eu- rope, and industry members are confident that despite challenges such as the difficulty of obtaining and enforcing liens on de- posit accounts, the fund finance market is poised to develop rapidly in the world’s fourth largest economy. Meanwhile, reg- ulatory changes expected to facil- itate market development are also underway in India. In the US the Securities and Ex- change Commission is demand- ing greater transparency for investors on fees and financial re- porting, and for US investors in cer- tain sectors overseas and their lenders, the 2025 COINS (Comprehensive Outbound Invest- mentNational Security)Act represents newdisclo- sure and compliance challenges. EU lenders are waiting for most member states to adopt legislation to transpose the Capital Require- mentsDirectiveVI, whichwas due to come into ef- fect in January this year, imposing licensing and capital requirements for non-EU banks undertak- ing certain lending activities in member states. Meanwhile, the market is coming full circle as banks increasingly establish partnershipswith pri- vate credit businesses – identifying and sharing in lending opportunities alongside third-party providers, creating their own private credit struc- tures fromwhich they can lendwithout regulatory and capital constraints, and investing in credit funds themselves. Syndicateddeals often include one ormore of each of banks and alternative lenders. Banks need to be on both sides of the market – more bespoke deals tend to be bilateral, while traditional syndicated fa- cilities appear to be involving more concentrated bank groups, for instance with four institutions rather than six or eight. Alternative lenders might partner with banks on larger deals by separating financing intomultiple tranches, for examplewith banks offering revolving credit and non-bank lenders providingfixed-termfacilities. Symposium participants saidEuropean banksweremore likely to approach non-bank lenders to offload exposure in response to regulatory constraints. The discussions at Miami Beach also identified a trend toward hybrid facilities among liquidity op- tions for continuation vehicles and GP-led funds. The growth in popularity of continuation vehicles has prompted the design of capital structures de- signed tomeet LP liquidity needs while preserving upside for continuing investors. Here too, the in- volvement of new lenders has increased competi- tion and led to keener pricing, although many borrowers still favour incumbent primary fund lenders whose familiarity with the assets and in- vestors can facilitate underwriting. Panellists also addressed the rapid evolution of col- lateralised fund obligations from a niche tool to a mainstream fund finance solution that enjoyed record issuance in the past year, and a broadening beyond the traditional secondary market into pri- vate credit, selected private equity portfolios and multi-asset platforms. Theproducts’ ratings are bol- steredbydiversification across funds, vintages, and strategies,with senior tranches increasingly capable of obtaining investment grade status; at the other end, the equity tranche remains hardest to place and is oftenbackstoppedby the sponsor todemon- strate their alignment with investors. A symposiumpanel examined the ongoing retail- isation of alternative investments, including the ex- pansion of private market strategies to investors outside the traditional institutional base through wealthplatforms and advisor-leddistribution. The panellists argued that these products require a sep- arate distribution model and supporting infras- tructure, including enhanced investor servicing and operational capabilities. Many retail private asset funds accept monthly subscriptions at NAV and offer periodic liquidity, often quarterly, across a large investor base, rather than a capital call process. Speakers argued that this structural trend could have direct implica- tions for fund finance, prompting fund sponsors to rely less on traditional subscription line facili- ties and more on NAV or other asset-based solu- tions to support liquidity management, portfolio turnover, and return objectives. These considera- tions raise heightened legal, compliance and re- porting issues that can shape both fund design and financing execution. Speakers noted that re- tail alternatives are still in their early days, and product proliferation is set to continue as market participants refine legal structures and infrastruc- ture to their constraints. A broader perspective was offered byMark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’sAnalytics, who expects a relatively buoyant US economy this year, boosted by the impact on GDP growth of artificial intelli- gence, which is stimulating demand through data centre investment andequity-drivenwealth, aswell as productivity gains that he expects to become more visible in 2026. Zandi, who was speaking be- fore theoutbreakofwar in theMiddleEast upended many assumptions about the US and global eco- nomic environment this year, also forecast that fiscal policy should provide a temporary uplift through larger tax refunds and higher federal outlays early in the year, which could be supplemented bymod- est Fed interest rate cuts. However, he is concerned about Washington’s de- globalisation agenda, including import tariffs, re- strictions on immigration, export controls and institutional retrenchment, which he sees depress- ing recruitment and labour force growth. Zandi also sees AI as a two-sided coin: the benefit of soaring equityvaluations couldbe lost if investor optimism about the sector proves excessive, result- ing in lower spending as a result of a contraction in wealth; conversely, productivity gains through AI could lead to a surge in redundancies. Zandi advo- cates comprehensive immigration reform to strengthen labour supply and productivity, fol- lowed by longer-term tax and entitlement adjust- ments to rein in the soaringUSdeficit.Nevertheless, he expressed cautious optimismabout the capacity of the US economy to adapt. Private credit, NAV facilities and sponsor flexibility: the new world of fund finance