Agefi Luxembourg - janvier 2025

Janvier 2025 27 AGEFI Luxembourg Fonds d’investissement Par Georgina PARKER, CFA, Responsable de la Durabilité, QUAERO CAPITAL* C es dernières années, l’attention accrue portée à l’investissement durable a conduit la commu- nauté des investisseurs à rechercher des données ESGplus complètes, fiables et comparables. Pour évaluer une entreprise sous l’angle de la du- rabilité, un certainniveaude transparence («disclosures») est essentiel. Faute de quoi, les investisseurs doivent re- courir à des approxima- tions oudes estimations - souvent inadéquates – faites par des tiers. Heureusement, la réglementation en matière de dis- closures ESGprogresse, notamment dans l’Union eu- ropéenne (UE), leader en lamatière. Cependant, face àl’évolutionpolitiqueetàuneoppositioncroissanteà laréglementation,cesexigencesrisquentd’êtrediluées ou reportées. Depuis 2014, l’UE a renforcé la transpa- rence des entreprises sur les enjeux envi- ronnementaux, sociaux et liés au personnel, avec la directive sur l’infor- mation non financière (Non-Financial Reporting Directive - NFRD) puis, en 2022,ladirectivesurlereportingdedu- rabilité des entreprises (Corporate Sus- tainabilityReportingDirective-CSRD). Les premières déclarations en matière de durabilité sont attendues pour l’exercice 2024. Toutefois, des retards semblent seprofiler.Legouvernemental- lemand, soutenu par une large coalitionpolitique,proposeunre- port de deux ans de la mise en œuvre de la CSRD, ainsi qu’une augmentation des seuils de confor- mité:chiffred’affairesminimumporté de 50 à 450millionsd’euros et effectif de 250 à 1.000 employés. La réduction du nombre des indicateurs à commu- niquer et la suppression d’obligations de reporting lié à la taxonomie, comme le ratio d’actifs verts pour les institutions financières, figurent aussi dans cette proposition. Ces ajustements limiteraient considéra- blement le nombre d’entreprises concernées et as- soupliraient les exigences pour celles encore visées. Cette remise en question dépasse la CSRD. L’ambi- tionde la directive sur le devoir de diligence des en- treprises (Directive onCorporate SustainabilityDue Diligence - CSDDD), visant à promouvoir des com- portements responsables dans les chaînes d’appro- visionnement, a également été réduite sous la pression de l’Allemagne, de l’Italie et, plus récem- ment, de la France. AuxÉtats-Unis,lesentreprisesrisquentden’êtresou- mises à aucune exigence de reportingESG. Bien que laSECaitapprouvédesrèglesde disclosure climatique enmars 2024, elles ont été édulcorées pour exclure le reporting des émissions de scope 3. Les grandes en- treprisesn’yseronttenuesqu’en2026,etlespetitesen 2028.Malgré ce faible niveaud’exigence, des recours juridiques ont suspendu leurmise enœuvre. Vingt-cinq États contestent l’autorité de la SEC en la matière. Même si la SEC s’engage à défendre ces rè- gles, leur avenir reste incertain, notamment sousune administrationaméricaineopposéeàl’intégrationdes critères ESG. En revanche, d’autres régions progressent. LaChine a annoncé de nouvelles lignes directrices applica- bles dès 2025 aux entreprises publiques et aux sec- teurs fortement polluants. Cela marque une amélioration bienvenue, car les données ESG chi- noises étaient jusqu’icimédiocres.Au Japon, des rè- gles similaires ont été adoptées en 2023, tandis que le Canada et d’autres marchés suivent les normes mondiales de l’International Sustainability Stan- dards Board de l’IFRS Foundation. Pour les entreprises, la collecte des données ESG reste un défi : complexité, coûts, multiplicité des normes. Bien que nous comprenions leurs difficul- tés, la transparence en la matière est cruciale pour permettre aux investisseursd’évaluer les risques liés au développement durable et la compétitivité des entreprises. En tant qu’investisseurs, nous devons disposer de cesdonnées pour prendredesdécisions éclairées enmatière d’investissement durable. Nous espérons que les gouvernements continue- ront à avancer sur ce sujet, en résistant aux pres- sions visant à diluer ou reporter ces réglementations essentielles. * www.quaerocapital.com La dilution des exigences en matière de transparence ESG Fixed income outlook: resilient US provides an anchor By David H OAG , Tm N G , Damien M C C ANN &KirstieS PENCE ;portfolio managers Capital Group T he enduring resilience of theUS economy will be a key driver of financialmarkets aswe look to 2025 andbeyond. Having avoided a recession, theUS looks to be returning tomid- cycle, according to economic data.At the same time, infla- tionhas continued to ease back towards theUS Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2%target, enabling the central bank to begin cutting interest rates. In this relativelybenigneconomic environment, interest rates are el- evated, resulting in yields that are attractive across the spectrum of fixed income asset classes. At the same time, yield spreads to Trea- suries for most credit assets are still tight, as demand has re- mained solid and fundamentals are strong, with corporate and consumer balance sheets both staying relatively healthy. Against this backdrop, fixed in- come portfolios can provide attractive entry points, as the in- come potential is relatively high, interestrateshaveroomtodecline, and we believe spreads can hang tight so long as fundamentals re- main supportive. With a newadministration taking charge in Washington in 2025, policiesontariffsandfiscalspend- ing have yet to be fully articulated or implemented. As investors try to calibrate specific policies and their potential impact on inflation and the broader economy, we ex- pect rate volatility to stay elevated in the near term. Nevertheless, somevolatility is not abad thing– it can create opportunities for ac- tive investors in duration, yield curve positioning and structured sectors such as mortgage-backed securities. High starting yields, compelling relative value oppor- tunities and a potential decline in interest rates provide a strong backdropforfixedincome,despite thegenerallytightlevelofspreads. Below,weprovidesomedetailson key areas of fixed income. Interest rates TheUSeconomyhasremainedre- silient while inflation eases and is moving toward the Fed’s target. Coreinflationmaydeclinefurther, driven by the important shelter component. Even if inflation re- mains above the Fed’s target, sig- nificant reacceleration, or broad- based pressures like those seen in recent years are unlikely. With inflation incheck, the central bank appears to have turned its focus to managing risks to the labourmarket.Webelieve theFed views monetary policy as restric- tive and will likely continue low- ering rates, albeit at a slower pace thanpreviously expected. Meanwhile, intermediate- and long-termratesremainelevatedon concernsthattheincomingTrump administration may raise tariffs, changeimmigrationpolicyandin- crease fiscal spending, which can beinflationary.However,thereare alternative scenarios where tariffs are not as punitive as anticipated, and the new government repeals some programs and curtails oth- ers. We are monitoring potential scenarios and expect rates are likely to remain rangebound. Several Capital Group portfolio managershaveaddeddurationto the strategies they manage fol- lowing the sell-off in rates during the US presidential election. While a curve steepener has been a high conviction position for many, the curve has steepened considerablyover thepast several months. As such, managers have shifted some of their risk budget to duration positioning. Investment grade corporate bonds The positive growth outlook should, all else being equal, pro- videafavourableenvironmentfor credit, which continues to enjoy strong technical support. Al- though this is already reflected in tightspreads,historysuggeststhat without a significant external cat- alyst,spreadscanpersistatcurrent tight levels for some time. Absent such a catalyst, we believe invest- ment grade (IG) corporate bond investors can continue to benefit from the attractive yields offered by the high-quality corner of the market. While near-term returns could showvolatilitytiedtofluctuations in Treasuries, longer-term returns are likely to align with yields. If economicgrowthdisappoints,the seven-year duration of the US in- vestment grade market should help offset any spread widening, asUSTreasuryyieldswouldlikely decline. The only scenario where we foresee significant pressure on IG corporate bond total returns is a stagflationary environment where yields and spreads move significantlyhigher.However,we currentlydonotviewthisaslikely. Given the current tight level of spreads, security selection is key andwe seeopportunities inphar- maceuticals andutilities.Over the past two years, several pharma- ceuticalshave issueddebt to fund acquisitions designed to bolster their product pipelines. As these are generally non-cyclical busi- nesses, they can maintain steady cash flows that allow them to re- duce debt over the subsequent fewyears.Withinutilities, oppor- tunities are emerging from vary- ing regulatory environments and an increase in capital expendi- tures tomeet the rapidly expand- ing power demand from data centres. With less compensation for riskier credits, portfolio man- agers have found it beneficial to move up in credit quality. Globally, corporate bond valua- tions reflect divergence between a resilient US and more fragile Eu- ropean economies that are more dependent on China. Banking re- mains a preferred segment: Euro- pean banks have high levels of capitalisation, good asset quality and ample liquidity. Securitised sectors Withelevatedinterestratesandan expectedriseinvolatility,nominal spreads on agency mortgage- backed securities (MBS) are 100 to 120 basis points (bps) above Trea- suries, higher than their historical average.Thismakesmanypartsof the agency MBS market cheaper than their corporate counterparts, providing investors mid-single- digit yields onhigh-quality assets. With anunusuallywide range in the coupon stack for agency MBS, investors canbuildadiver- sified portfolio. Higher coupons offer attractive compensation with compelling nominal yields and spreads, even if interest rate volatility remains elevated. Meanwhile, mortgage securities with coupons in the 3% to 5% range stand to benefit if interest rates decline. Securitised credit valuations re- main attractive compared to cor- porate credit. Asset-backed securities (ABS) provide competi- tive income at the short end of the maturity range. For example, in- vestors can pick up 70bps above Treasuries for AAA-rated ABS with a 1.5-year duration, backed by subprime auto loans. These bonds have robust structures that protect against delinquencies and losses,particularlyinthesehigher- rated tranches. In commercial mortgagebacked securities (CMBS), certain AAA- ratedCMBS offer a 40bps pick up in spread compared to A-rated corporates.Wecontinuetoseeop- portunitiesinself-storageanddata centre deals, among other subsec- tors,issuedintheSingleAssetSin- gle Borrowermarket. In the conduit space, we have be- comemoreoptimisticaboutoffice properties and are encouraged to see a clear bifurcation in the mar- ket’sperceptionandvaluationsbe- tween high quality and lower quality assets. High yield Highyieldcompanieshavelargely reportedhealthyearningsandop- eratedconservativelyoverthepast fewyearsamidrecessionconcerns, leaving them in decent financial health.TheFed’sratecuttingcycle should provide a further buffer. Despite high yield spreads being historically tight, the resilience of the US economy and improved credit quality of the sector make all-inyields attractive. The sector’s shorter duration should also offer diversification for broader fixed income portfolios. With meagre refinancingneedsover thenext 24 months and a positive outlook for economic growth and corporate earnings,creditlossesareexpected to remain low. With spreads tight, it is a credit picker’s market. Within the cable andsatelliteindustries,whichface long-term challenges, we have foundvaluationsforsomehigher- quality issuers attractive. In other areas, the potential deregulation from the new administration couldcreateafavourableenviron- ment for M&A driven activity in thecommodityandenergysectors — areas where we continue to lookforinvestmentopportunities. Emergingmarket debt (EMD) stands to benefit fromFed easing The current backdrop for emerg- ing markets (EM) seems favourable, with resilient US growth combined with Fed eas- ing. External balances for many emerging markets are generally strongoutside of the frontiermar- kets.Inflationhasmoderatedsub- stantially from 2022 peaks and continues to trend downward amidrestrictivemonetarypolicies. While fiscal indicators remain weak,mostofthemajoremerging markets have lengthened their debtmaturityprofileandareissu- ing more debt in local currency, enhancing their resilience. This policy mix gives many EM countries room to ease rates and supportgrowthifneeded.Trump 2.0 is likely to introduce volatility for emergingmarkets in2025, but the details, timing and impact of thenewUSadministration’spoli- cies remain uncertain, and they will affect different EM countries in varying ways. It is unclear whetherallannouncedtariffswill be implemented and how they might impact EM. Tariffs on China would notably affect the yuan, while universal tariffs will impactmoreopeneconomiesand those dependent on global sup- plychains, suchasTaiwan, Korea and Singapore. Elsewhere, Mexico is vulnerable to changes in US immigration policy and negative effects on re- mittances could harm its econ- omy, current account and currency.Duringthelastroundof tariffs, some EM economies ben- efitted from nearshoring and the relocation of supply chains. As such, a selective, research-based investment approach, analysing impacts as tariffs are announced, is warranted in 2025. In local currency emerging mar- ketdebt ,valuationsremainattrac- tive, as many central banks have erred on the hawkish side given internal pricepressures andexter- nal uncertainty. This means that realratesremainelevatedinmany EMcountries,givingcentralbanks room to ease policy to support growth if needed as long as infla- tionremainsundercontrol.Uncer- tainty around fiscal policy (and some political issues) have led a significant repricing in some local markets, especially in Brazil and Mexico, wherewe see opportuni- ties. Meanwhile, in South Africa, real rates are near historical highs andhaveroomtodecline.Thepri- mary risk in local EMD is higher US interest rates due to looser fis- cal policy, higher tariffs and a fur- ther economic growth driven by deregulation. In hard currency sovereign mar- kets, solid macro fundamentals but mixed valuations require greater selectivity. EMwith lower external vulnerabilities and smaller internal imbalances offer greatermarketresilienceandmore flexibility for policymakers to ad- dress external risks. However, spreadsaregenerallyfairlytightin these economieswhose sovereign bonds have higher credit ratings. Some countries, particularly fron- tier markets, benefit from IMF as- sistance and a lower vulnerability toUStradepolicies.Weseeoppor- tunities within Colombia and Honduras, despite political issues weighing on their outlooks. Wealsofavoursomecorporatesin Brazil, Mexico and India, which have taken a more prudent ap- proach to borrowing than sovereigns, and they should also provide diversification. Bottomline Bonds appear to have returned to theirtraditionalroleasportfoliodi- versifiers. This dynamic was evi- dent in early August 2024 when equity markets came under pres- sure on weaker-than-expected economicdata.Whileequitiessold off, bondmarkets rallied, mitigat- ing losses for mixed asset portfo- lios. Over the past 50 years, the negative correlation between bonds and equities typically oc- curredwheninflationwascloseto the Fed’s 2%target. Althoughthereareexceptions(no- tablythe1990s),periodsofhighin- flation have generally seen both asset classes become positively correlated. Looking forward to 2025, inflation is trending, which means fixed income could once again provide a measure of in- come, diversification and ballast against stockmarket volatility.