Agefi Luxembourg - janvier 2025

Janvier 2025 25 AGEFI Luxembourg Fonds d’investissement Opinion - par Alexis BIENVENU , Fund Manager La Financière de l'Echiquier A près s'être ardemment réjouis de l'élection deDonaldMusk début novembre, lesmarchés commencent à prendre plus au sérieux les risques associés à Elon Trump. L'indice S&P500 des actions américaines baisse ainsi de plus de 3% (au 2 jan- vier 2025) depuis le 16 décem- bre. Quant à l'action Tesla, après s'être envolée de plus de 80%entre l'élection prési- dentielle et le 16 décembre, elle rechute de 18%. Ce dégrisement ne provient pas seule- ment,ilestvrai,descraintesliéesàlapolitique économiquedufuturprésident.Elleprendégalement sasourcedansl'attitudemoinsaccommodanteadop- tée par la banque centrale américaine. La Feda certes baissé son taux directeur de 25 points de base lors de sa réunion du 18 décembre, mais en accompagnant ce geste d'un discours prudent concernant les baisses de taux à venir. Celles-ci ne seraient plus qu'au nombre de deux d'ici fin 2025, d'après les projections du conseil des gouverneurs. Loin de fournir une perspective de nor- malisation rapide du taux directeur vers sa cible de long terme, la Réserve Fédérale le voit ainsi s'établir autour de 3,9%fin 2025, en partie en raison d'une inflation attendue en 2025 au-dessus de ce qui était es- péré lors de la réunion de septembre. Les marchés ne pouvaient éviter de réagir négativement. Mais pourquoi cette projection d'inflation est-elle plus élevée ? A vrai dire, les données récentes sur l'in- flation ne plaident pas de façon manifeste pour une inflation particulièrement pénalisante en 2025. Plusieurs facteurs devraient au contraire contribuer à la modérer, en particulier l'accalmie des prix im- mobiliers, laprogressivedétentedumarchéde l'em- ploi, ou encore la modération actuelle – attendue comme durable – du prix du pétrole. Il y a donc lieu de supposer que cette révision défa- vorable des anticipations d'inflation provient au moins en partie d'hypothèses sur la future politique économique du prochain président. Certes, Jerome Powell, le chef de laFed, sedéfendde toute spécula- tion à ce sujet. Mais le simple fait qu'il existe dans le programme présidentiel un risque haussier sur l'in- flation ne peut manquer de s'immiscer dans les an- ticipations de politique monétaire. Par ce biais, l'un des conséquences préoccupantes du programme trumpien peut inquiéter lemarché. D'autres aspects sombres du pouvoir trumpien ont pu jouer dans ce dégrisement des marchés. C'est le cas notamment des dissensions profondes, désor- mais manifestes, qui entaillent le camp présidentiel. Elles augurent une grande instabilité dans les poli- tiques à venir. Premier épisode de tension majeure dans le camp républicain : le rejet le 19 décembre dernier par la Chambre des représentants, pourtant à majorité républicaine, d'un projet de budget présenté par Trump, explicitement téléguidé par Musk. Ce rejet a précipité le pays au bord de la fermeture du gou- vernementfédéral.Certes,uneversionamendéeaété adoptée in extremis, au prix de concessions impor- tantessuraspectslesplus''muskiens''dubudget.Mais celan'apas arrêté leparti dans sadislocation, qui s'est manifestée ensuite sur la question de l'immigration. Certains trumpiens ont en effet réclamé d'interdire le recours aux visas de type H-1B, qui visent à faciliter l'immigrationd'étrangers dotés de compétences pro- fessionnelles rares. Cette initiative a déclenché l'ire d'ElonMusk, qui s'est déclaré prêt à partir en guerre pour sanctuariser leur utilisation, vitale pour l'é- conomie de l'innovation, alors que Steve Bannon, un trumpienhistoriquetoutjustesortideprison,aenjoint ElonMuskà «rester au fondde la classe et s'assoir» le temps de s'approprier correctement le trumpisme. Ces dissensions profondes pourraient perdurer tant queTrumptenteradejonglerentrelesintérêtsdesmil- liardaires de la Silicon Valley et ceux des éleveurs du Midwest. Le votedemesures cruciales, enparticulier le budget, pourraient ainsi se confronter à des im- passes,cequelemarchépourramanquerdesanction- ner.GareauxcrashsparlementairesàborddelaTesla trumpienne ! Donald Musk vs Elon Trump A s sustainabilitybecomes a keypriority onglobal agen- das, green finance has emer- ged as a crucialmechanismto finance the transition towards sus- tainable development. Currently, the EU, US, andChina are leading the “green investmentsmarket”. However, their approaches, priori- ties, andprogress differ signifi- cantly, reflecting their unique political structures, economic priori- ties, and societal pressures. This ar- ticle exploreswhere the EUstands compared to theUS andChina in this green journey andhowthe EU can leverage securitization toun- lock itsmarket potential and stay competitive internationally. TheGlobalGreenMarket:Where the EU, US, andChina Stand Theglobal greenfinancemarket has been experiencing significant growth, with major contributions fromtheEU,US, and China.As of 2024: The European Union (EU) : The EU has been a leader ingreenfinance, heavily in- vestinginrenewableenergy,greenbonds, and environmentally friendly projects. The European Investment Bank’s (EIB) GreenBondProgramwithatotalissuance of EUR 197 billion by the end of 2023 is a tangible success story. Similar initiatives arecurrentlyongoingwithinEurope.The EUremainscommittedtofinancinganet- zero transition with innovative funding structuresandregulatoryframeworks,in- cluding Green Taxonomy. To meet the ambition of EUR 1 trillion (1) investments peryearproposedbytheEuropeanGreen Deal (EGD), it is estimated that an addi- tional EUR 520 billion from 2021-2030 needs to be invested in sustainable transi- tionprojects,andanadditionalEUR92bil- lion directed to the manufacturing industry with net-zero technologies, to boost the EU’s capacity and competitive- ness from2021-2030. TheUnitedStates (US) : TheUSgreenfi- nance market continues to grow, with strong support for renewable energy projects via initiatives like the Clean En- ergy Investment Initiative. The private sector also plays a significant role, with corporationsissuingsustainability-linked loans and bonds. From the public sector, theUS InflationReductionAct (IRA) and its subsidypackage, aroundUSD1.2 tril- lion (2) , could be reached by 2031 in the economic landscape. In 2023, the US in- dividually reached investments of USD 225billioninsustainableprojects,focused on cleantech companies. The IRA’s am- bition is for the US to become the global leaderinsustainablefinanceby2031,out- pacing Europe andChina. China : China has emerged as a major playeringreenfinance,drivenbyitsmas- siveinvestmentsincleanenergytechnolo- gies, electric vehicles, and urban green infrastructure.Chinahasdevelopedacon- sistent environment that allows invest- ments in sustainable projects, allied to green loans and bonds both worldwide top-ranked, benefiting from government policiesandlocalinitiativeslikethecarbon trading market and green finance pilot zones.Chinahasseenrapiddevelopment of green industries over the past years. In 2024, the Chinese carmaker BYD sur- passed Tesla in terms of revenue, re- ported in the third quarter, reaffirming its strength in the international competi- tion in the greenmarket. China relies on its renewable energy capacity, mostly solar, wind, and hydro, reaching about 50% of its total generation capacity, and clean energy contributes around 40% to the 2023 growth of its GDP (3) . However, to meet the country’s carbon peak and neutrality deal “30/60”, it is estimated that a total of USD 450 to 570 (4) billion of green investmentsper year is needed, re- quiring significant collaboration fromthe public and private sectors. How Securitization Can Act as a Critical Tool in the EU to Leverage Investments TowardsGreen Finance Securitization can play a key role in the economy as a tool for attracting new in- vestors’moneyandasariskmanagement tool, sharing credit risk from banks (or non-bank lenders) with a broad number of investors, allowing greater exposure anddiversificationaccordingtotheprofile of investors. Securitization canprovidefi- nancing opportunities and free up capital forbanksandnon-banklenders,stimulat- ing and enabling them to provide addi- tional lending to the real economy. This promotes competitiveness, sustain- able growth, and attractiveness of the EU securitizationmarket.Morethanever,fu- ture investment needs for the green and digitaltransitions,inordertoenhancethe EU’s productivity, competitiveness, and resilience,make it clear that the allocation of capital is necessary and important to ensure that banks and non-bank lenders have at their disposal all the necessary tools. The EU securitization framework can act as such, to finance strategic proj- ectswhile safeguardingfinancial stability and investors. However, the EU needs to work toward making the securitization market attrac- tiveagain.Overall,theEuropeansecuriti- zationmarkethasdecreasedsignificantly after2008-2009,fromapproximatelyEUR 2 trillion at its peak to EUR 1.2 trillion at the end of 2023. Meanwhile, in other countries like the US, it increased from USD 11.3 trillion in 2008 to USD 13.7 tril- lion in 2021, despite the higher default rates of securitizations during 2008 (5) . Oneway to revive and strengthen theEU securitization market could be through green finance in sustainable projects, as it isestimatedthatmorethanEUR1trillion 5 per year is needed to meet the EU ambi- tions towards the EGD. Worldwide, the greenmarket is expected to reach its peak investments in2033byUSD28.7 trillion (6) . Thiscreatesopportunities,andtheEUcan benefit fromits securitization framework, established in 2019, to penetrate this worldwide market, attracting investors with the objective of financing the econ- omywithoutcreatingriskstothefinancial systemwhile providing amore transpar- ent and standardized framework. The EuropeanCouncil conclusions of 18 April 2024 reinforced the call to relaunch the European securitization market, in- cluding through regulatory and pru- dential changes. Relaunching securiti- zation has been recommended as a means of strengthening the lending ca- pacity of European banks, creating deeper capital markets, and increasing the EU’s competitiveness. This might lead the EU to maintain its global lead- ing position in the green market. By modernizing and turning the securitiza- tion framework in the EU into a more friendly and attractive environment for investors (with less bureaucracy, yet protecting the investors), the path toun- locking the ambitious planof EUR1 tril- lion from 2025-2034 could be made. Therangeofopportunitiesingreenindus- tryandsocial investments (see footnote 2) are as follows: - Green Industry Investments – EUR 400 billion:Focusedoncleantechmanufactur- ing and the transition to sustainable en- ergy and transport. - Social Investments – EUR 620 billion: Supporting sustainable housing, public services,greeninfrastructure(solarpanels, wind farms, professional development into new skills to meet market demands, water treatment). What are the two main challenges to address in this green journey? Greenwashing Risks: It is not new that non-governmental and financial institu- tions push for claims towards net-zero pledges without being net-zero. A lack of clear standards and regulations, as noted by the UN panel presented at COP27 on 16 November 2022, “not only erode(s) confidenceinnet-zeropledgesoverall,but also undermines sovereign state commit- ments andunderstates thework required to achieve global net-zero.” Securitization could also be used for non-green assets presented as sustainable financing, mis- leading its purpose to benefit from incen- tives for sustainable projects. In a more regulatedandstandardizedenvironment, companies are required to ensure trans- parency and accountability by making their data available in an open format, fa- cilitatingglobalcomparisonsamongcom- petitorsandincreasingtrustinthemarket. Regulatory Harmonization: In a con- nectedeconomy,itisnecessarytodevelop clear andharmonized standards tomaxi- mizethepotentialofgreenfinance,includ- ing securitization structures, and more importantly, to maintain investors’ trust. Thechallengewithregulationsisthateach country focuses on its own environment, but as aworldwidemarket, governments should come together to better align reg- ulations that address various scenarios to betterguideinvestorsandprotecttheirin- terests, using this tomeet theglobal needs for net-zeroemissions by2050. InEurope, theSFDR(SustainableFinanceDisclosure Regulation) was introduced in 2019, de- signed to allow investors to properly as- sesshowsustainabilityrisksareintegrated into the decision process. In the US, the TCFD (Task Force onClimate-Related Fi- nancial Disclosures) was introduced in 2022 by the SEC, which is comparable to theSFDRinEurope,andinChina,theGFS (Green Financial SystemGuidelines) was introducedin2016.Alltheframeworksare comparable but lack harmonization amongthem,increasingthelevelofadap- tations companies and investors must make to comply with each different framework. Conclusion Green finance is crucial for achieving global sustainabilitygoals, andsecuritiza- tion can play a key role in achieving it. However, the most important thing is howtoturnthistoolintoamoreattractive wayofinvestment,saferforinvestors,and how to benefit from this growingmarket that is foreseen as an economic ambition worldwide, creating a huge environment forbusinessandopportunities.Thepoten- tial is on the table; now it is up to govern- ments and lawmakers to put in place a harmonizedframeworkandcreateasolid foundationthatallowsinvestorstochange their mindset about green finance while maintaining their trust. VanessaMÜLLER, Partner,ESGLeader PapaSaliouDIOP, Partner,Banking&CapitalMarkets, LuxembourgSecuritizationLeader FabioROCHA, SecuritizationManager,Banking&CapitalMarkets EYLuxembourg 1)Investmentsinthesustainabilitytransition:leveraging green industrial policy against emerging constraints— EuropeanEnvironmentAgency 2)T&E_InvestmentPlan_April2024andTowardsa€1 trillionpackage forEurope|Transport&Environment 3)Newreport:ChinaGreenFinanceStatusandTrends 2023-2024–GreenFinance&DevelopmentCenter 4)China’sGreenFinanceMarket:PolicySupport&In- vestmentOpportunities 5)Consultationdocument-Targetedconsultationonthe functioningoftheEUsecuritisation framework 6) Global Green Finance Market Size To Exceed USD 28.71 Additionalsources: - Europe’s green future needs more private investment, urgently–Euractiv -What istheEuropeanGreenDeal? -WorldEconomicForum -Sustainability-relateddisclosureinthefinancialservices sector-EuropeanCommission - US Sustainable Finance: Demystifying SEC Rules | ClarityAI - Green Finance Framework and Financial Instruments inChina-Lexology - Green bonds in Europe | European Environment Agency’shomepage Green Finance: The role of the EU, US and China, and how Securitization can unlock the market potential