AGEFI Luxembourg - mai 2025

AGEFI Luxembourg 24 Mai 2025 Fonds d’investissement By Chloé PIQUET, Director and Markus SCHWAMBORN, Director at Deloitte Luxembourg C ross-border funddistribu- tion is transforming in response to shifting in- dustry dynamics. Regulatory change, product innovation, technological disruption, and evolving investor expecta- tions are converging to re- shape howassetmanagers structure, market, andde- liver investment products across jurisdictions. Today’s environment calls for greateragility.Managersmustre- thinkoperatingmodels,streamlinedistributionstrate- gies, and stay ahead of compliance challenges to remaincompetitive.Thisarticleexploresthekeyforces reshaping the industry, identifies emergingopportu- nities, and offers a forward-looking perspective on howmanagerscansucceedinthenextphaseofglobal funddistribution. Broadening access: The rise of private assets for retail investors Over the past two decades, private markets have shifted fromniche tomainstream. Private equity, pri- vatedebt,realestate,andinfrastructurefundshaveat- tracted record inflows, consistently outperforming traditional publicmarket benchmarks. Anotabledevelopment is thedemocratizationof pri- vateassets—bringingtraditionallyinstitutionalstrate- gies to a broader investor base. This trend is most visible in the EuropeanLong-TermInvestment Fund (ELTIF)regime,whichunderwentamajorrevampin 2023. ELTIF 2.0 offers greater flexibility in asset com- position, leverage, and redemption terms, signifi- cantly improving the appeal of these vehicles to both asset managers and retail investors. Asset managers seized that opportunity to launchnewproducts. The number of ELTIFs has doubled since the entry into force of ELTIF 2.0. Luxembourg has taken the lead in this evolution, hosting over 64% of all ELTIFs in Europe, thanks to its responsive regulatory infrastructure and ex- perience in cross-border fund structuring. The shift has opened access to long-term, illiquid strategies for retail clients—a significant step forward in aligning investor needs with broader economic goals such as infrastructure development and in- novation financing. However, with greater access comes greater respon- sibility. National competent authorities remain cau- tious, especially regarding liquidity risk and investor protection. This translates into high compliance bur- dens, product complexity, and the need for well-in- formed distribution practices. Asset managers must investinproducteducation,targetedcommunication, andcompliancetoolsthatensuresuitabilityandtrans- parency—especially when targeting retail clients across the EUandbeyond, eachwithdistinct regula- tory expectations. Those who succeedwill broaden their investor base, differentiatetheirofferings,andleadthenextwaveof global investment innovation. Current trends: Innovation alignswith investor behavior Innovation continues to transform the investment landscape—not just through products, but also throughhowinvestorsengagewiththem.AcrossEu- rope, Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) are seeing record growth. In 2024, net inflows into equity ETFs reached EUR 192 billion, while traditional equity funds experienced notable outflows. Investors now gravitate towards transparent, flexible, and efficient investment solutions. An important sub-trend is the rise of actively man- agedETFs,whichcombinetheadvantagesofpassive structures—low cost, daily liquidity, tax efficiency— with active portfolio oversight. The US has led this shift, but momentum is building in Europe, where moremanagersarelaunchingactivestrategiesinETF format tomeet demand for differentiatedofferings. FintechplatformssuchasTradeRepublicandRevolut are drawing a new generation of digitally native, value-driveninvestorsthroughmobile-first,commis- sion-free trading. These platforms are not merely in- termediaries; they shape user expectations around simplicity, speed, and control, compelling traditional assetmanagers to rethink their distributionandmar- keting approaches. Meanwhile,tokenizationhasemergedasadisruptive force. Using blockchain infrastructure, tokenized funds can automate ownership tracking, enable frac- tional investments, streamline compliance, and improvesettlementefficiency.Luxembourghasposi- tioned itself as a leader in digital assets, with a regulatory regime that encourages experimen- tationwhilemaintaining investor protection. Early adopters are piloting tokenized fund issuance and blockchain-based settlement, demonstrating the operational benefits of this emerging infrastructure.While still early in its lifecycle, tokenization has the potential to enhance liquidity in traditionally illiq- uid assets and transformback-office operations for global funds. New markets: Growth opportunities across Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East As cross-border activity ma- tures in Europe, global expan- sionisbecomingincreasinglyattractive. Emerging markets are modernizing their regulatory frameworks and enhancing access for international assetmanagers. InAsia, several developments standout.HongKong and Mainland China are strengthening the Mutual RecognitionofFunds(MRF)framework,easingprod- uct approvals, and raising sales quotas. In early 2025, thequotaforHongKong-domiciledfundsdistributed inMainlandChinawasincreasedfrom50%to80%of a fund’s total assets, leading to strong demand for fixed income andbalancedproducts. Froma cross-border standpoint, HongKong also re- laxeditsrequirementsthroughtheintroductionofthe FASTrack.Thisproceduresimplifiesforeignfundap- proval, reducing it fromthreemonths to 15 days. Taiwan also accelerated reform. The Financial Su- pervisory Commission (FSC) now also offers fast- track registration for offshore funds and has cut approval timelines significantly. These efforts aim to attractmore international assetmanagers, diver- sifyproduct offerings, andpromote local talent de- velopment, all which help position Taiwan as a regional distribution hub. In Latin America, progress is underway. Mexico now permits the listing of foreign passive ETFs on local exchanges, increasing access for domestic in- vestors. Meanwhile, Colombia, Peru, andChile are moving towards a unified regional exchange, which could enable seamless cross-bordermarket- ing and distribution. In theGulf CooperationCouncil (GCC), regulators are advancing harmonized frameworks to align fund registration and marketing across member states, mirroring the EU’s passporting model. This could significantly reduce friction and position the region as a capital gateway for global firms offering Sharia-compliant, ESG-focused, and infrastructure- oriented strategies. In all thesemarkets, success depends on localization: aligning productswith local investor needs, navigat- ingdomesticregulatoryframeworks,andestablishing trustwith regional partners anddistributors. Future developments: EUpassporting and capitalmarket integration Closer tohome, Europe continues to refine its single market framework. On 15April 2025, the European Commission launchedaconsultation to improve the EUmarketingpassport,whichhasbecomea corner- stone of the UCITS and AIFMD regimes. The con- sultation focuses on the barriers assetmanagers face whenmarketingacrossborders;theseincludeincon- sistencies in documentation, local regulatory inter- pretations, and goldplating byMember States. This effort reflects the EU’s broader push to deepen cap- italmarkets integration. Simplifying andharmoniz- ing fund marketing rules could enhance the global competitiveness of theEuropeanassetmanagement industry and reduce the cost and complexity of product distribution. At the same time, the European Securities andMar- ketsAuthority (ESMA) is steppingup its supervisory role.Ina2024report,ESMAhighlightedwidedispar- ities in howMember States oversee cross-border ser- vices, warning of potential consumer harm and regulatoryarbitrage.Inresponse,ESMAreleasednew guidelines requiring that all marketing communica- tions be clearly labeled as such and that risk disclo- suresbeprominentlypresented,regardlessofformat. This push for consistency is particularly important in a digital world, where fundmarketing occurs across websites, apps, and social platforms. ESMA aims to ensure that investor protection standards remain ro- bust regardless of format or delivery channel. Taken together, the Commission’s consultation and ESMA’s actions signal a turningpoint: Greater align- ment and streamlined rules would enhance trust in thecross-bordersystem,benefitingbothinvestorsand the firms that serve them. Conclusion Cross-borderfunddistributionisnavigatingaperiod ofmeaningfulchange.Theconvergenceofregulatory evolution,productinnovation,digitaltransformation, and investordemocratization is redefininghowasset managers engagewithmarketsworldwide. To thrive in this environment,managersmustmove beyond regulatory compliance. Successwill depend on building scalable, tech-enabled platforms, deliv- ering localized, investor-centric strategies, and con- tributing actively to regulatory evolution. Those who combine regulatory foresight with innovation and executionwill shape the future of cross-border distribution. As the global investment ecosystembecomes more interconnected and competitive, asset managers must position themselves at the forefront of change by delivering value, access, and transparency to a broader spectrumof investors. Insights into a shifting landscape of distribution L ’annonce début avril de tarifs douaniers largement supérieurs aux attentes par l’administration Trump a créé un climat d’incertitudes généralisé susceptible d’impacter la croissance de l’économiemondiale dans lesmois à venir, affirment GuyWagner (cf. portrait), chief investment officer (CIO) de la société de gestionBLI - Banque de Luxembourg Investments et son équipe dans leur dernier rap- port d’analyse sur lesmarchés fi- nanciers, les «Highlights». «Dès lors, les statistiquespubliéespour le compte du premier trimestre ne sont guèrereprésentativesdel’évolutionfuture, la plupart des consommateurs et entreprises ayantagienanticipationdel’annoncedestarifsdoua- niers, entraînant des distorsions majeures », dit Guy Wagner. Ainsi,auxÉtats-Unis,leProduitintérieurbrutareculé de 0,3%en rythme annualisé, « en raison d’une forte augmentation du déficit de la balance commerciale suscitée par la flambée des importations ». Bien que la croissance de la consommation domestique se soit modérée, elle est restée ferme, affichant une progres- sionde1,8%.Enzoneeuro,lePIBaprogresséde0,4%, soitledoubledesattentes,marquantlecinquièmetri- mestre consécutif de croissance. «Lesenquêtesmenéesauprèsdeschefsd’en- treprises européens suggèrent toutefois un impact négatif des droits de douane améri- cainssurlamarchedesaffairesdanslespro- chainsmois. » En Chine, le PIB a augmenté de 5,4% en rythme annuel en raison d’une accélé- ration des exportations avant la mise en place des droits de douane. Les autorités publiques envisagent de mitiger les effets négatifs de la politique tarifaire américaine par des mesures additionnelles de stimulationfiscale.Au Japon, les barrières tari- faires réduisent le potentiel de croissance de l’économie forte- ment tournée vers les exportations. Dans la zone euro, l’inflation fait du surplace Bien que la tendance baissière de l’inflation se soit poursuivieauxÉtats-Unisaumoisdemars,ellepour- rait se retourner dans les prochains mois en raison des augmentations de prix résultant des droits de douane. Ainsi, le taux d’inflation global a reculé de 2,8% en février à 2,4% en mars. Dans la zone euro, l’inflation fait dusurplace. Enavril, le tauxd’inflation global est resté inchangé à 2,2%. LaRéserve fédéralemaintient son appétence en faveur d’une approche attentiste La Réserve fédérale américaine n’a pas tenu de réu- nion au mois d’avril. Lors d’un discours à Chicago, son président Jerome Powell a maintenu son appé- tence en faveur d’une approche attentiste après l’an- nonce des droits de douane afin de mieux pouvoir évaluerleurimpactsurl’inflationetlacroissanceéco- nomique. En zone euro, la Banque centrale euro- péenneaencoreréduitsontauxdedépôtde25points de base pour le ramener à 2,25%. « L’effet négatif des droits de douane américains sur la croissance européenne, la remontée de l’euro et la faiblessedesprixpétrolierspourraientinciterlesauto- ritésmonétaires à baisser à nouveau leurs tauxdirec- teurs lors de la prochaine réunion au mois de juin », estime l’économiste luxembourgeois. Les investisseurs remettent en question le statut d’actif refuge ultime des bons du trésorUS Enavril,lesrendementsdesobligationsd’Etataméri- cains se sont avérés volatils, baissant juste après l’an- noncedesdroitsdedouane,puisrepartantàlahausse, «lesinvestisseursremettantenquestionlestatutd’ac- tifrefugeultimedesbonsdutrésorUSauvudespra- tiquesmenaçantes adoptéespar lanouvelleadminis- tration américaine à l’égarddes partenaires commer- ciaux ». L’annonce postérieure de la suspensionde la plupart des tarifs douaniers pour 90 jours a de nou- veau engendré une détente des taux longs, ces der- niers finissant le mois sur des niveaux quasiment inchangés. En zone euro, les rendements obligataires se sont détendus en raison de l’impact défavorable des droits de douane américains sur la croissance conjoncturelle du vieux continent. Ainsi, le taux de référence à 10 ans a reculé aux États-Unis, en Allemagne, enFrance, en Italie et enEspagne. LeDollarUS est le plus grandperdant du « LiberationDay » jusqu’à présent Bienque lesmarchés boursiers aient été très volatils au courant dumois d’avril, ils ont fini le mois à des niveaux presque inchangés par rapport à ceux de finmars. Guy Wagner : « La volte-face de Donald Trump, annonçant des tarifs douaniers lors du « Liberation Day » le 2 avril pour les suspendre en partie de 3 mois quelques jours plus tard explique les hauts et les bas des cours boursiers. »Ainsi, labaissede 4,1% de l’indicedes actionsmondialesMSCIAll Country World Index Net Total Return exprimé en euros s’explique dans sa quasi-entièreté par le recul du dollar. Endevise locale, les principaux indices bour- siers se sont peu repliés. « Au niveau sectoriel, la consommation de base, les services publics et l’in- dustrie ont le moins reculé alors que l’énergie, la santé et la consommationdiscrétionnaireont affiché les baisses les plus notables. » Le climat d’incertitudes généralisé pourrait impacter la croissance de l’économie mondiale