Agefi Luxembourg - décembre 2024

AGEFI Luxembourg 24 Décembre 2024 Fonds d’investissement D ecember 30 not onlymarks the upcomingnewyear, but alsobrings the secondpart of the EU’sMiCARegulation into ef- fect. Consequently, 2025will greet in- dustrieswith requirements around CASP licensing andmarket abuse pre- vention, aimed at strengthening and legitimizing the European crypto-assetmarket.As Bitcoinhas breached the USD100,000 cap, inves- tors and financial institu- tions (FIs) are once again turning their attention to crypto-relatedproducts,ma- kingMiCA’s timing ideal. InJune2024,theEuropeanUnionbeganimplement- ing part of the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) Regulation, initially focusing on Asset-Referenced Tokens (ARTs) and Electronic Money Tokens (EMTs) askey typesof crypto-assets (CAs)within its scope. This slowly laid the groundwork for the EU market to determine which types of crypto-assets and services could be regulated and offered in the singlemarket, allowing firms to develop innovative business models and service offerings. As of now, we are approaching the second key regulatory date of December 30, 2024, when the remainder of the MiCA regulationwill come into effect. Thismilestoneintroducesseveralnewrequirements, impacting the crypto-asset service provider (CASP) licensing regime and implementing market abuse prevention mechanisms. In parallel, the European Banking Authority (EBA) has published various draft regulatory standards (RTS) to complement the regulation and assist stakeholders in translating the regulation intopractices (suchasown funds require- ments, liquidity requirements and management policies, or stress testing). These developments aim to provide the market with greater assurance and build trust in the usage of crypto-assets, aligning with the regulated tradi- tional financial markets. It also provides FIs with clear guidelines and expectations on how they can approach these technologies, offer new types of digitalized financial services, and demonstrate ef- fective compliance in these innovative areas. With a clear framework in place, FIs could now expect that their peers will also begin to investigate such crypto-asset services and integrate them into their current product offerings. Tokenization andStablecoins Oneof themost attractive aspects ofCAs is theusage of tokenization to enable various digital benefits. To- kenizationcanbroadlybedefinedastheprocessofis- suingauniquedigitalrepresentationofanasset.Inthe context of MiCA, tokenization is often used to create digitalrepresentationsofmoney,butitcanalsobeex- tended toother types of assets, suchas somepopular tokens being basedongold commodities. Tokenization offers several benefits, including seam- less and faster payment processing, simplified inte- grations with digital wallets and mobile payment solutions, all supported by advanced and highly se- cure digital platforms. Inrecentyears,cryptocurrencieshavebeenatthecen- ter of attention, with their values experiencing roller- coaster changes. The recent launch of the first crypto-ETFsandtheriseofBitcoinsincetheAmerican electionsarethelatestexamples.However,suchcases arenotseenasattractiveformanymarketparticipants who are looking for more stable products. Thus, for practicalday-to-dayusage,themarketmorefavorably looks uponwhat are referred to as “stablecoins”. Sta- blecoins are crypto-assets designed topeg their value to real-life assets. Examples include the aforemen- tioned tokenizationof gold, aswell as tokenizationof “fiat currencies” (traditionalmoney suchas theEuro, BritishPound, orUSDollar). Asset-referencedtokens(ARTs)aretokensthatderive theirvaluefromamixofassets,suchasfiatcurrencies, commodities, or even other crypto-assets. For exam- ple,thetokenizationofcommoditiessuchasgoldand other precious metals would be classified as anART underMiCA.Meanwhile, EMTs are pegged to a sin- glefiatcurrencyandarefocusedsolelyondigitalizing fiatcurrencies.Theyfunctionasdigitalcash,maintain- ing parity with the price value of the fiat currency at all times. EMTs are functionally similar to traditional electronicmoneyandaresubjecttothesameissuance andredemptionrequirementsasoutlinedintheElec- tronic Money Directive 2 (EMD2), to be replaced by the upcoming Payment Services Regulation and Di- rective 3 (PSR / PSD3). Digitalization of PaymentswithStablecoins Stablecoins have the potential to transform the pay- ments landscape by offering reliable and efficient al- ternatives to traditional financial systems. Their inherentstability,combinedwiththedigitally enabled platforms they operate on, pro- vides userswith fast, secure, and transpar- ent transaction functionalities. As transactions are recorded on transpar- ent, immutable ledgers, users and the CASPscaneffectivelyseetransactiondetails and ensure that transactions are properly verified and validated. This trans- parencyhelps reduce fraud, increase trust between parties, and trace and identify the move- ment of funds in case of fraud investigations. These digital ledger networks are also highly secure and resistant to tamper- ing, providing added assurance to the reliability of stablecoins. Theintegrationof“smartcontracts”offersinteresting possibilities for managing transactions. These smart contracts may be deployed as self-executing digital agreementsbetweentransactingparties,withthecon- tracttermsencoded.Suchcontractsautomaticallyex- ecute and enforce terms once the predefined conditions agreeduponby theparties aremet.When usedwithstablecoins,thiscanresultinhighlystream- linedandautomatedpaymentprocesses,minimizing humanerrors and latepayment risks, andenhancing the predictability of future fundsmovements. For example, a smart contract couldbe programmed toreleasepaymentstoabusiness’supplieroncegoods are delivered. The smart contract would execute as per its coded instructions and trigger the payment as soon as the system recognizes proof of delivery. A similar scenario can also be applied in B2C cases, whereaconsumermayenterintoasmartcontractthat wouldautomaticallyprocesstheirpaymenttoanon- line retailer once the consumer confirms receipt of their purchasedgoods. Financial DigitalizationBeyondMiCA MiCAserves as a strong entrypoint for theEUinen- couraging innovationand increasingdigitalization in the financial sector. MiCA is a pioneering regulation andtheonlyoneofitskindthatservesasanextensive regulatoryframeworkforCAs,asopposedtothegen- eral guidelines seen in other regions. MiCA is gener- ally favorably viewed within the existing crypto communitiesaswellasbyotherinternationaljurisdic- tions as a reference point. Beyond regulating CAs, however, MiCAmay also act as a catalyst for further digital innovations in the financial sector, given up- comingdevelopments and initiatives across the EU. FIs can consider several other EU measures that demonstrate the singlemarket’s strong commitment to fostering innovation in digital currencies. One prominentexampleisCentralBankDigitalCurrencies (CBDCs)suchastheEU’sDigitalEuro.CBDCsarees- sentiallyCAsissuedandmanageddirectlybycentral banks,beingeffectivelysimilarto“official”orgovern- ment-issuedEMTs. The ongoingwork on theDigital Euro is a CBDC initiative by the European Central Bank, which will be rolled out across the EUmarket upon completionandavailability. This venture is de- signed to be complementary to and co-exist with physical cash, rather than replace it, but still ensures to offer EU citizens CBDCs to expand their payment options around 2028. In parallel, the Electronic Identification, Authentica- tion, and Trust Services (eIDAS) regulation plays a crucial role in ensuring secure digital identities and trust mechanisms within the EU. Under eIDAS, the EUmarketisestablishingrobustdigitalidentification frameworkstosimplifyaccesstodigitalIDsforallEU citizens. These digital IDs canbe used for authentica- tion,makingpayments,sharingdetailstoreceivepri- vate and public sector services, and more. Additionally, the EU has mandated that all EU citi- zens will receive completely free EUDigital Identity Wallets for the usage of their digital credentials, strongly encouraging the transition to and adoption of suchdigital tools. All combined, we are about towitness a strong push towardsdigitalizationinthepaymentindustry.Thus, asofDecember 30, FIswill be subject toobtainingau- thorization as a CASP through the formal licensing process with their national competent authority (NCA), in order to offer crypto-asset services on the market. The CASP licensing regime does not require allalreadylicensedfirmstoundergoafullnewappli- cation process, such as established credit institutions, investment firms, andpayment institutions. Nonetheless, theymust notify theirNCAs of their in- tention to provide CA services and comply with MiCA. These measures include implementing strict operationalandcompliancecontrols,robustcustomer due diligence processes, transaction monitoring sys- tems, maintaining healthy liquidity, and particularly ensuringstrongcontrolsaroundanti-moneylaunder- ing (AML) and counter-terrorist financing (CTF). FIs should assess the possibilities of stablecoins and other benefits of CAs from a strategic lens to deter- mine whether these offerings are aligned with their digitalroadmapsandarestrategicallyattractive.Con- sidering the imminent enforcement of the regulation, FIs have limited time to secure positions as early en- trants to the market to distinguish themselves from theirpeers.Giventhenatureofthesenewtechnologies underlying CAs, it would also be prudent to begin considering governance and compliance from the outsetofthesedigitaltransformationprogramstoen- sure timely adherence. ThisarticlewascompiledbyRomainSwertvaegerandClémentRobert, with valuable contributions from Shreyam Jalan, EY Luxembourg, Senior Banking Consultant. Romain SWERTVAEGER EY Luxembourg Partner, Fintech Leader Clément ROBERT EY Luxembourg Senior Manager, Regulatory Compliance MiCA’s Full Effect Drops: Take the Next Step into EU Financial Digitalization Par Philip B EST &Marc S AINT J OHN W EBB – Co-Gestionnaires QCFL Argonaut - QUAERO CAPITAL* L es petites capitalisations euro- péennes vivent des temps dif- ficiles. Àfinoctobre, 80%des gérants ont sous-performé l’indice MSCI Europe Small Capdepuis le début de l’année. Les gérants fran- çais et allemands, souvent exposés à leursmarchés domestiques, ont particulièrement souffert, ces in- dices accusant des replis notables (leCACSmall CS90 affichait - 10,7%et SDAX -7,4%à finoctobre). Faisant partie de ces 80% en difficulté, nous avons analysé les causes de cette sous-performance générale. Un indice qui perdde son sens LesETF répliquant l’indiceMSCI Europe SmallCapont connudesfluxmassifsde- puis le début de l’année, attirant 1,4 mil- liard d’euros contre seulement 455 millions pour les fonds actifs. Cela n’est pas sans conséquences. La valorisation moyennepondéréedel’indiceatteintdés- ormais27foislesbénéfices,contre15,5fois sur une base équipondérée, illustrant le poids le plus important des plus grandes entreprises, dont des valorisations sont plus élevées. Cette concentration pose question : l’indice représente-t-il encore l’univers des 4.500 petites entreprises eu- ropéennes qu’il est censé refléter ? Un cinquième des sociétés de l’indice ont une capitalisationsupérieure à5milliards d’euros, loin de la définition classique de “petitecapitalisation”.Parailleurs,lacrois- sance des bénéfices attendue de l’indice (15% pour 2025) est inférieure à celle de l’univers des small caps (20%, selon S&P IQ).Ainsi,lesinvestisseurspaientunmul- tiple élevé pour une croissancemoindre. Des bonnes nouvelles qui passent inaperçues Unautrephénomènepréoccupantestl’ab- sence de réaction des cours face aux bonnes nouvelles. Parmi les dix princi- paux titres de notre portefeuille, cinq ont annoncé des résultats supérieurs aux at- tentes. Pourtant, leur performance bour- sière est restée atone, voire négative. Cetteinactionreflètesoitundésintérêtgé- néral,soitunmanquedeliquiditésàinves- tirdanscegenredesociétésdanslesfonds smallcaps.Toujoursest-ilquecesrésultats positifs confirment la santé fondamentale des entreprises concernées. Aquand le retournement de tendance ? Les petites capitalisations européennes se négocient actuellement avec une décote historique par rapport aux grandes capi- talisations. Traditionnellement valorisées avecuneprimede20%,ellesaffichentau- jourd’hui des multiples bien inférieurs. À titredecomparaison,lespetitescapitalisa- tions américaines se traitent à plus de 25 fois les bénéfices estimés pour 2025 (Rus- sell 2000), contre 15 fois pour leMSCI Eu- rope Small Cap et moins de 10 fois pour notre portefeuille. Cette décote, combinée àunecroissanceattenduede20%,offreun potentiel de réévaluation significatif. Rachats d’actions : un signal fort Face à des valorisations historiquement basses, un tiers des entreprises de notre portefeuille procèdent à des rachats d’ac- tions. Parallèlement, les familles fonda- trices et actionnaires renforcent leurs positions, un signe clair de leur confiance dans le potentiel de leurs sociétés. Catalyseurs politiques Les gouvernements européens prennent desmesures pour soutenir les petites ca- pitalisations. En France et en Italie, des fonds publics/privés ont été créés pour stimuler les investissements, tandis que le Royaume-Uni et l’Allemagne prépa- rent des initiatives similaires. Ces dispo- sitifs rappellent des précédents tels que la Loi Monory ou le PIR italien, qui avaient revitalisé lesmarchés. Ces initia- tives pourraient engendrer des flux po- sitifs dès début 2025, stimulant les valorisations et attirant de nouveaux in- vestisseurs. Conclusion – L’adversité, source d’opportunités Les petites capitalisations européennes traversent une crise comparable à celle de 2008-2009. Pourtant, ces périodes de morosité offrent des opportunités rares. À des valorisations entre 6 et 10 fois les bénéfices prévisionnels 2025, notre por- tefeuille regorge d’entreprises de qualité avec des perspectives solides. Historiquement, de telles conditions ont conduit à des rebonds spectaculaires, comme en 2009 où notre fonds a enre- gistré une hausse de 60% sur l’année. Nous croyons fermement que cette pé- riode difficile annonce un tournant ma- jeur pour les investisseurs prêts à saisir ces opportunités. * www.quaerocapital.com Rien ne va plus dans l’univers des petites capitalisations européennes