Agefi Luxembourg - janvier 2025

AGEFI Luxembourg 20 Janvier 2025 Fonds d’investissement A vec la baisse de l’inflation, des taux d’intérêt plus faibles et une dimi- nutiondes craintes de récession, les perspectives pour 2025 semblent fa- vorables. Néanmoins, les investisseurs institutionnels restent prudents, comme le révèle l’enquête annuelle deNatixis In- vestmentManagersmenée auprès de 500 investisseurs institutionnels dans le monde. Les principales préoccu- pations concernent les valo- risations boursières (47%) et les taux d’intérêt (43%). Sebastien Sallée (cf. portrait), CountryHeadBelux chezNatixis IM, observe que les investisseurs abordentlanouvelleannéeavecune confiance mesurée : «Les investis- seurs institutionnels entrent en 2025 avec un optimisme accru. Bien qu’ils identifient une variétéderisquesàl’horizon,ilsestimentquelemar- chésaurafairefaceauxpressionsgéopolitiquesetaux éventuelsbouleversementsmacroéconomiques.Peu d’entre eux modifient leurs stratégies à long terme, mais ils reconnaissent que des ajustements tactiques d’allocation pourraient accroître leurs opportunités. À long terme, le succès dépendra cependant de leur capacité à naviguer efficacement dans les dyna- miquesmacroéconomiques et demarché actuelles.» Après unmarché haussier de deux ans porté par les valeurstechnologiques,deuxtiers(67%)desinvestis- seursdoutentquelesvalorisationsactuelles reflètent les fondamentaux. Trois quarts (75%) estiment que 2025 sera l’année où les valorisations redeviendront une prio- rité.Parailleurs,72%soulignentquelapo- litique des banques centrales sera déterminante pour la durabilité de la hausse actuelle desmarchés. Unoptimisme croissant La peur d’une récession a fortement diminué.Alorsque51%desré- pondantsjugeaientuneréces- sion inévitable l’année dernière, ce chiffre est tombé à seulement 30%. Près des deux tiers (64%) anticipent un atter- rissageendouceurpourl’écono- mie, et moins d’un investisseur sur cinq (18%) pense qu’une ré- cession interrompra la hausse actuelle des marchés. Par ailleurs, les investisseurs sont plus optimistesquantàl’inflation:deuxtiers(68%)s’atten- dent à ce que l’inflation atteigne ou reste en dessous de l’objectif en 2025, tandis que seulement 32% crai- gnentdeschocsinflationnistes.Malgrécetoptimisme, les risques géopolitiques restent des préoccupations majeures,notammentlestensionsentrelesÉtats-Unis et laChine (34%) et l’escalade des conflits (32%). Dans lemême temps, unemajorité s’attendàunevo- latilité accrue en 2025, en particulier sur les actions (62%), les devises (49%) et les obligations (42%). Les cryptomonnaiesrestentunmarchédeniche.Bienque lesentimentsesoitamélioré(38%d’opinionspositives contre17%en2024),72%desinstitutionsjugentlesC1 - Public Natixis cryptomonnaies inadaptées pour la plupart des investisseurs, et 65% ne les considèrent pas comme une optiond’investissement légitime. Les investissements alternatifs et le private equity sous les projecteurs Les investisseurs continuent d’augmenter leur expo- sition aux investissements alternatifs. Six sur dix (61%) pensent qu’un portefeuille 60:20:20 – avec une plusgrandeallocationauxinvestissementsalternatifs – surperformera le modèle traditionnel 60:40 com- posé d’actions et d’obligations. Parmi les investisse- ments alternatifs, leprivate equityest le choix favori : prèsdestroisquarts(73%)yvoientlesmeilleuresop- portunités, en hausse par rapport à 60% l’année der- nière. Près de huit investisseurs sur dix (78%) estiment que la baisse des taux d’intérêt en 2025 sti- muleradavantagelesmarchésprivés,tandisque73% anticipent une augmentation de l’émission de dettes privées pour répondre à lademande croissante. Plus de lamoitié (54%) des institutions ont déjà accru leur allocationauxmarchésprivés,et65%recherchentac- tivement de nouvelles opportunités, notamment dans les investissements liés à l’IA. Lesmarchés émergents offrent de nouvelles opportunités Le ralentissement économique enChine exerce une pression sur lesmarchés émergents : prèsdehuit in- vestisseurs sur dix (79%) s’attendent à ce qu’une croissance plus faible devienne la nouvelle norme enChine, et six sur dix (60%) pensent que cela freine la croissance des marchés émergents dans leur en- semble. Néanmoins, des opportunités subsistent. Plus de la moitié (53%) des investisseurs prévoient unehaussede lavaleur des investissementsdans les marchés émergents cette année, à mesure que les banques centrales assoupliront leurs politiques. Le découplage de la Chine crée des opportunités pour d’autres marchés émergents. Les trois quarts (74%) des investisseurs citent l’Asie (hors Chine) comme la meilleure opportunité d’in- vestissement pour 2025. Par ailleurs, 63% estiment que l’Inde surpassera laChine en tant que principal marché émergent pour les investisseurs. La gestion active de nouveau indispensable Pour 2025, les investisseurs institutionnels anticipent un rôle crucial pour la gestion active dans la réalisa- tion des rendements. Près des trois quarts (70%) pensent que les conditions de marché favoriseront les stratégies actives. Cette confiance est confirmée par 67% des investisseurs, qui déclarent que leurs investissements en gestion active ont surperformé les indices de référence en2024. Lagestionactive est particulièrement essentielle sur les marchés obliga- taires : sept investisseurs surdix (70%) la considèrent comme indispensable dans l’environnement actuel de taux d’intérêt et de crédit. Lerapportcompletestdisponib lesurhttps://lc.cx/GNdWHn Les investisseurs institutionnels restent prudents en 2025 L uxembourg has been at the forefront of integratingDis- tributedLedger Technology (DLT) into its financial services sec- tor. The latest legislative initiative, BlockchainLawIV, was adopted by the Luxembourg Parliament on 20December 2024. BlockchainLaw IVexpands the existingDLT legal framework to include unlisted equity securities and introduces a newrole known as theControl Agent. In a nutshell, what are the key features of BlockchainLawIV and its commercial opportunities for the Luxembourgmarket? Expansion toUnlisted Equity Securities Blockchain Law IVallows the issuance of unlistedequity securities throughDLT, in addition to unlisteddebt securities, in de- materialised (book-entry) form. This change is expected to significantly impact theLuxembourgfundindustry,whichwe will explore below. TheControlAgent BlockchainLawIVintroducestheControl Agent role for issuing dematerialised se- curities. The Control Agent uses a secure electronicmechanism, includingDLT, to: - Keep the securities issuance account. - Follow the custody chain of the issued securities. -Reconciletheissuedsecuritiesregistered in a securities issuance account with the sum of securities registered in securities accounts. Any EU credit institution, investment firm or securities settlement system can act as a Control Agent, provided they meet specific IT, corporate governance andprofessionalrequirementsdetailedin the new article 21 bis (1) of the 2013 Law on dematerialised securities. No bespoke licenceisrequired,butentitiesmustnotify theCSSFatleasttwomonthsbeforestart- ing operations. MainBenefits of BlockchainLaw IV for the LuxembourgMarket The Control Agent model offers an alter- native to the existing central account keeper (CAK)/CSD model, which in- volvesatwo-tiercustodychain.Underthe existing regime, the CAK or CSD keeps the securities issuanceaccount and the se- curities accounts for the account keepers, who in turn keep securities accounts for theirclients.ThismodelrequirestheCAK or CSD to perform costly and time-con- suming “Know Your Customer” (KYC) verificationslinkedtothecustodyoffinan- cial instruments in the securities accounts. In contrast, the ControlAgent only keeps the securities issuance account and does not performcustody functions for the ac- count keepers. After registering the secu- rities in the issuance account, they are directlycreditedtotheinvestors’securities accounts. Both the issuance account and the securities accounts can bemaintained through DLT, streamlining the holding chain and automating reconciliation through smart contracts. This eliminates theneedforKYCcompliancefortheCon- trolAgent,makingitparticularlyattractive forfirst-timeControlAgentsbuildingsuch a business line. The new regime allows any EU invest- ment firm, credit institution or settlement organisation to act as a Control Agent without needing tobe established inLux- embourg,hencepromotingthecross-bor- der adoption of the model and the use of Luxembourg lawfor international securi- ties transactions. Indeed, securities issued with a Control Agent must be issued under Luxembourg law. EUCredit Institutions or Investment FirmsActing asControlAgents With Blockchain Law IV, EU credit insti- tutionsorinvestmentfirmscanoperateas Control Agents by notifying the CSSF. Control Agents do not perform custody functions, avoiding compliance and op- erationalcosts.AbankactingasaControl Agentwill not need to complywithKYC obligationsrelatedtothecustodyofsecu- rities. Credit institutions can act as both ControlAgents and account keepers, cre- ating a leaner holding structure andelim- inating the traditional double layer of the custody chain. This integration could re- duce costs and increasemarket efficiency byallowingcreditinstitutionstocoverthe entire lifecycle of securities and facilitate the marketing of issued securities. In fact, underthisnewoptionalregime,tradition- ally distinct roles − such as issuance recorder, custodian and dealer – can be played by the same credit institution, re- sulting in significant cost reduction and market efficiency. BlockchainLawIVand the Funds Industry DLThassignificantpotentialtostreamline fund administration, including automat- ing capital calls, distributions, reporting, record-keeping,real-timeNAVcalculation and enhancing audit processes. Blockchain Law IV introduces new op- portunities for the Luxembourg fund in- dustry by allowing the issuance and management of fund units in book-entry formthrough theControlAgent regime. Issuingorconvertingfundunitsintobook- entryformthroughaControlAgentoffers several benefits: 1. Eliminationof the registrar role :With securities in book-entry form, there is no need to appoint a registrar. The Control Agent can be relievedof registrar obliga- tions, including KYC requirements, which will be handled by the account keepers of the investors. A DLT-based platform used by the Control Agent can serve as a one-stop-shop solution, allow- ing all relevant parties − issuer, deposi- toryandfunddistributors−tointeractvia anAPI layer. Thisplatformcouldevenbe accessible toend-investors, enablingadi- rect distributionmodel, particularlyben- eficial for alternative investment funds open to retail investors. 2. TokenisationofMoneyMarketFunds (MMFs) to unlock collateral mobility : Tokenising MMFs can unlock collateral mobilityonanunprecedented scale. Cur- rently, most collateral market operations aremanual andmove at a T+1 speed. To- kenisedMMFscanbetransferredinstantly and securely on blockchain platforms, 24/7. Smart contracts can automate collat- eralmanagementprocesses,reducingop- erational errors. Luxembourg-based HQLAx and Euroclear’s tokenisation of GILTs, Eurobonds andgoldare examples ofthispotential.Theabilitytomobiliseand use large pools of high-quality assets al- most instantly through DLT will unlock new revenue opportunities while reduc- ingcapitalexposureandoperationalrisks. The recognition by Blockchain Law IV of thepossibility to issue fundunits inbook- entryformcansignificantlystreamlinethe utilisationofMMFsforcollateralmanage- ment. Fund units in book-entry form can be transferred directly between account keepers,eliminatingtheneedforatransfer agent to perform the registrar function. ThisdevelopmentwillenabletheLuxem- bourg fund industry to expand itsMMFs offerings and position itself as a leader in enhancing collateral management throughDLT. SecondaryMarket TradingOpportunities Debtandequitysecurities(includingfund units) issued through DLT in book-entry formmaybeadmittedtotradingonaDLT Multilateral Trading Facility (DLT MTF) or a DLT Trading and Settlement System (DLT TSS). These newmarket infrastruc- tures, established by Regulation (EU) 2022/858(theEUPilotRegime),enablethe creationofasecondarymarketforDLTfi- nancial instruments. Companies like 21x havesecuredlicencestooperateDLTmar- ket infrastructures andwill become oper- ational soon. ControlAgents operatingDLTplatforms for managing tokenised securities and fundunits can connect to thesenewDLT market infrastructures, enabling the trading and settlement of unlisted secu- rities. The Control Agent could poten- tially perform the initial recording of the securities in the issuance account and connect it to the DLT market infrastruc- ture through a cross-chain bridge or other technical solutions. The operator of theDLTmarket infrastructure could run a trading venue and/or keep the securi- ties accounts of itsparticipants tooperate a settlement system, depending on whether it is a DLTMTF, DLT securities settlement system (DLT SS) or a DLT TSS. Settlement can be done “on-chain” using tokenised commercial bank money, MiCAR-compliant e-money to- kens (stablecoins) or central bank digital currencies when available. This will cre- ate a secondary market for tokenised fi- nancial instruments similar to traditional trading venues for standard securities. In such a context, the Control Agent can serve as a sort of “single-entry point”, en- abling issuers to connect tomultiple DLT market infrastructures as well as conduct theirOTCtradesviaasingleplatform.The same entity might even operate a DLT market infrastructure under the EU Pilot RegimeandsimultaneouslyactasControl Agent, thusprovidingan integratedsolu- tionfortheissuance,trading,custodyand settlement of tokenised securities. Conclusion Blockchain Law IV heralds a new era of business opportunities forEUcredit insti- tutions and investment firms and signifi- cantly impacts the Luxembourg fund industry by enabling the issuance and management of fund units in book-entry form through the Control Agent model. Coupled with secondary market trading opportunities for tokenised securities of- fered by the EU Pilot Regime, this law is set to solidifyLuxembourg’s position as a leader in the financial services industry and a global fundhub. Philippe NOELTNER, Counsel, global financial markets Enrico DALLE MULLE, Junior associate, global financial markets Giacomo BENINCASA, Junior associate, global financial markets A&O Shearman Blockchain Law IV – what does it mean for Luxembourg’s Financial Services and Fund Industry?