Agefi Luxembourg - décembre 2024

AGEFI Luxembourg 2 Décembre 2024 Economie / Banques Opinion - ByBrunoCOLMANT,Member of the RoyalAcademy of Belgium G eopolitics is going through a massive upheaval. TheUni- tedStates, under theTrump administration, is going to give its in- dustries an indescribable boost. China, whichhas become itsmain rival inmany fields, including artificial in- telligence, cybersecurity, and green innovation, is alsodomi- nating industrial sectors. Consolidatedbya lackof technolog- ical modernization, Europe had founditconvenient-andhighlyprof- itable-torelocatetolower-wagecoun- tries. We imported products that were too expensivetomanufacturelocally,thusbenefit- ingfromthewagegapbetweenformerdevelop- ing countries (now developed) and the traditional West. Europe has done little to innovate, acting as a rentier power that doesn’t understand the world clock.Thishascontributedtoourde-industrialization, although without it, many Eastern European and Asian countries could not have prospered. So we’ve traded our social welfare for underpaid work else- where while our economic growth has been disas- trous. For 40 years, we have been the stowaways, not the rowers, on an industrial ship set adrift. All this has led to industrial decline and a loss of innovation inEurope.Moreover, Europe is drawnintotheglobalSouth’sgrowinghostil- ity to theWesternworld (the BRICS+). In this context, Trump’s proposal is interesting: He seekstoreindustrializetheUnitedStatesatthe expense of the countries whose goods it im- ports. This is called protectionism. Although most economists agree that, in the medium term, it leads to lower overall growth, this model can nonetheless help restore the “terms of trade.” In this way, the United States is trying to protect itself from the globaliza- tion it has promoted, but it perceives itself, rightly or wrongly, as the victim. From now on, Trumpwill runhis country like a company, in other words, in a permanent quest for monopoly and pricing power. And everything, and I mean everything, will be turnedupsidedown,startingwiththeregalsymbols: theAmerican currency anddebt. By slowing down in terms of economic growth, Eu- ropewill have to contendwith contradictory and cu- mulative shocks: A gradual move away from the UnitedStates,increasinglyfierceChinesecompetition, and, of course, a war in Ukraine, which, despite all their rhetoric, the Europeans will neither be able nor willing to continuewithoutAmerican help.And this American help is going to dwindle. All this could be carefullymanaged if Europewere politicallyunified. Unfortunately, this is not the case. Europe is increas- ingly divided, while the Franco-German couple is a shadowof its former self.Without France’s approval, theCommissionispushingaheadwithissuessuchas Mercosur.We are no longer leaders in anything, and certainlynot in technology. Moreover,severalcountries,ofteninconjunctionwith the United States, want to break out of the European straitjacketandregaintheirdiplomaticandeconomic freedomof action. This is particularly true of Poland, Hungary, and Italy. In this context, theDraghi report firedthelastcartridgeofthealarmpistol,predictinga slow death without colossal investments, which no one is contemplating. We have become a continent thatisnolongerrunbutadministered,revealingcon- tradictions and awar at our borders... So, what is Europe missing? Everything starts with a homogeneous political model. Once social-demo- cratic, Europe is now fragmented. In a striking 1934 text entitled “The Unification of Europe,” Stefan Zweig (1881-1942) already anticipated our contem- porarysituation: “[TheEuropean idea] belongs only to a thin upper layer and has not taken root in the humus of the peoples. Let us recognize the su- premacy of the opposite idea: nationalism.” Inmy opinion, the current formulation of the Euro- pean Union no longer corresponds to an effective model. We’re weighing the project down by trying tomake everything over-regulated and centralized. And then there’s the fatal flawof the lackof a supra- national industrial policy, whichmerely reflects the juxtapositionofthememberstates.Thisiswhysome countries are seeking todistance themselves fromit. I’m beginning to wonder, counter-intuitively, whether we shouldn’t reinvent a more confederal and less federal model. A confederation is a volun- taryunionofindependentstatesthatdelegatecertain limited powers to a standard central bodywhile re- maining fully sovereign. By allowing eachmember state to retain substantial sovereignty, a confederation would promote more flexible decision-making adapted to national reali- ties, while maintaining focused cooperation on strategic areas such as defense, trade or infrastruc- ture. Thiswould reduce the senseof impositionbya central authority, often perceived as interference by some countries, while preserving collaborative mechanisms where they are essential. A confederal model couldalsoencouragehealthycompetitionbe- tween member states, stimulating innovation and economic efficiency. This vision could give the impression of leading to a weaker, fragmented Europe. But we may have reachedapointwherethefragilehopeofunifyingthe continentleadstomorestagnationthanhealthycom- petition. In any case, it would be foolish not to reflect on the political organization of our continent in a worldwhose foundations are nowdestabilized. 2025: The stakes for Europe in Trump’s world SOMMAIRE t Economie / Banques Trump : la clé de voûte des perspectives (David PAGE, AXA IM) p.1 et 6 Fusions et acquisitions (M&A) : l’horizon s’éclaircit (Alain SCHOCKERT, Degroof Petercam) p.1 et 4 2025: The stakes for Europe in Trump’s world (BrunoCOLMANT,RoyalAcademyofBelgium) p.2 Moins d’impôts et plus de pouvoir d’achat pour tous (Chambredesdéputés,ministèredesFinances) p.4 La BCE abaisse ses taux et laisse la porte ouverte à d’autres réductions (Reuters) p.6 Consolidation bancaire européenne : la revanche des pays du sud (Pierre PINCEMAILLE, DNCA Investments) p.6 Perspectives d’investissement pour 2025 (Daniele ANTONUCCI, Quintet) p.7 Le clivage entre une conjoncture américaine robuste et une économiemondiale chancelante se poursuit (GuyWAGNER, BLI) p.7 How Luxembourg Private Banks Embrace Digital Transformation (Survey KPMG andABBL) p.8 Faire face aux instabilités (Conférence de la Chambre de Commerce) p.8 Les perspectives d’avenir du secteur d’assurance au Luxembourg (ACA Insurance Day 2024) p.9 L’élection de M. Trump renforce le besoin d’une défense européenne (JeanMARSIA, S€D) p.10 Arendt Investor Services celebrates 15 years (Interviewwith Christian HEINEN, CEO) p.10 En 2025, réinventons la gestion diversifiée ! (Vincent JUVYNS, J.P. Morgan AM) p.11 Informer, ne pas prendre parti (ÉDITORIAL par Adelin REMY, Éditeur) p.11 FitchRatingsconfirmeleAAAduLuxembourg p.11 Leprixdel’incertitude(PhilippeLEDENT,ING) p.12 AIAdoptioninEuropeanFinancialServices:Progress, Challenges, and Future Directions (Laurent MOSCETTI, Ajay BALI, EY) p.12 Climate risk modelling in the financial sector: Understanding, assessing, and integrating risks (Alina VORONTSOVA, RymKACED, PwC) p.13 Addressing Unwarranted Top-up Taxes: Exploring Strategies and Navigating Challenges for Multi- nationals under Pillar Two (CamilaCALDERON, Eduardo ISIDRO, EY) p.14 Newopportunities for collaboration betweenChina and Luxembourg (Chamber of Commerce) p.14 Un rebond de l’activité en trompe-l’oeil ? (Publication mensuelle du STATEC) p.15 Le nucléaire, une technologie stratégique pour la décarbonation de l’UE (Stéphanie HENG, Alban de La SOUDIÈRE) p.16 Climat et environnement : Cinq vœux pour les institutions financières en 2025 (Robin MARC, R-Aligned) p.16 Tax risk management through the lens of tax con- troversy (Begga SIGURDARDOTTIR, Hermann SCHOMAKERS, PwC) p.17 « Le dialogue entre l’Union européenne et le Royaume-Uni reste vital » (Gilles Roth, réunions Eurogroupe et Ecofin) p.17 t Fonds d’investissement CSSF’s first sanction in the context of ESG: Key lessons for fund managers (Catherine MARTOUGIN, Sophie ARVIEUX, Baker & McKenzie) p.18 Fostering Confidence: The Allure of Assurance in SFDR’s Regulatory Evolution -A critical appreciation on how this has aged! (Kenny PANJANADEN, GeoffroyMARCASSOLI, PwC) p.18 La plupart des investisseurs luxembourgeois restent prudents à l’égard de l’investissement basé sur l’IA (Enquête Swissquote Bank Europe) p.19 Luxembourg Private Credit Funds: Market Analysis and Outlook (Marcel BARTNIK, Vandenbulke) p.20 Navigating taxation and structuring of Digital Assets Funds in Luxembourg (VincentMARTIN, Jordan FELTESSE, Deloitte) p.20 Marchés émergents : L’histoire ne se répète pas toujours (Christopher DEMBIK, Pictet AM) p.21 KeyTakeawaysfromEYLuxembourg’sAssetServicers Roundtable: Essential Tax Insights (Dan ZANDONA, EY) p.21 Forte volatilité des marchés en 2025 (Virginie MAISONNEUVE, Allianz Global Investors) p.22 CSSF CIRCULAR 24/856: Tolerance Threshold Analysis and Corrective Actions: What is The Im- pact on Open-Ended vs. Closed-Ended UCIs? (EmanuelePOMPEI,LaurentCAPOLAGHI,EY) p.22 Brûle, baby, brûle ! (Alexis BIENVENU, LFDE) p.23 US exceptionalism revived?A changing world still (or again) driven by the US (Norman VILLAMIN, UBP) p.23 Les fonds ESG au Luxembourg connaissent un re- bond de 12,3% (Rapport LSFI et PwC) p.23 MiCA’s Full Effect Drops: Take the Next Step into EU Financial Digitalization (RomainSWERTVAEGER,ClémentROBERT,EY) p.24 Rien ne va plus dans l’univers des petites capitali- sations européennes (Philip BEST, Marc SAINT JOHN WEBB, Quaero Capital) p.24 The Crucial Role of Biodiversity in Sustaining Life and Economies (Oliver HEILAND, Ludwig LIAGRE, Isabelle DELAS, Nairi TARAKDJIAN, LuxFLAG) p.25 Quelles perspectives desmarchés internationaux de capitaux en 2025 ? (JanVIEBIG, ODDOBHF) p.26 Où les investisseurs professionnels alloueront leur argent ? (Schroders) p.26 Staying Ahead with ESG 2025: Key Regulatory Updates and Strategic Actions (VanessaMÜLLER, AnnaILLARIONOVA,MartinaSCAVINO,EY) p.27 Falling Interest Rates: The Good and Bad News for PrivateCredit (Marie-LaureMOUNGUIA, EY) p.27 MiFID III? Navigating through the upcoming regulatory changes on the capital markets (zeb consulting) p.28 AIFMD 2: Will it help fix Europe’s regulatory patchwork? (GrahamROCHE, IQ-EQ) p.28 The AI revolution: Transforming the asset manage- ment industry in Europe and beyond (Christoforos SOTERIOU, Alejandro GONZÁLEZ VEGA, DLAPiper) p.29 Le secret du “Santa Claus Rally” : Quand la magie de Noël s’invite sur les marchés (Hans SELLESLAGH, Freedom24) p.29 LePrivateEquity,unpilierfondamentaldel’économie réelle (Damien HELENE, Altaroc) p.30 CSRD:L’exigenced’unreportingESGaussirigoureux que le reporting financier (LaurencePONCHAUT,DistinctConsulting) p.30 How the Nature Restoration Regulation shapes corporate responsibility and investment strategies (MartinaDAVANZO,FrédéricVONNER,PwC) p.31 FundsinLuxembourg:TheRCrole–Troublemakeror TrustedPartner?(IsabelleERPELDINGER,VistraFund Management,ArmelleMOULIN,Lemanik-Interview byIssamAZGUIGOU,SquareManagement) p.32 PEPP 2.0 – Finally a Suitable (Fund) Product for Fund/ AssetManagers?(SebastiaanNielsHOOGHIEMSTRA, Loyens&Loeff) p.33 Pourquoilemarchédusecondairepeutaideràrésoudre une question à plusieurs millions de dollars ? (Maxime CARMIGNAC, Carmignac) p.34 Stockmarket outlook: AI leads a broadeningmarket (Capital Group) p.34 t Droit / Emploi Le Tribunal d’arrondissement de Luxembourg confirme que les administrateurs de SA ne sont pas assujettis à la TVA (Michel LAMBION, Eric REOLON, Deloitte) p.35 Signature d’une convention de collaboration entre l’ADEM et FEDIL Employment Services p.35 L’incapacité de travail constitue-t-elle une protection absolue ? (Eva CHRISTOPHE, Castegnaro) p.36 Seniors, seigneurs ! (CarolineLAMBOLEY, Lamboley Executive Search) p.36 Lagouvernanced’entreprisedémystifiée:clésetenjeux (House of Entrepreneurship) p.36 Recognition and enforcement of the UK judgment post-Brexit : a Christmas wish for simplification (ValérieKOPÉRA,ApollineCHOUNLAMOUNTRY, Baker & McKenzie) p.37 «L’attractiondetalentsestprimordialepourdynamiser notreéconomie»(ministèredel’Économie) p.37 Appel à la cohérence des politiques immobilières sur le marché luxembourgeois (Jacques PIROUX, Latour & Petit - Ecofin Club Luxembourg) p.38 Prix de l’Innovation de la FEDIL p.38 Made in Luxembourg : 40 ans d’origine luxem- bourgeoise (Chambre de Commerce) p.38 Administrative court of appeal decision on the economic appreciation concept (EmilienLEBAS,ValentinePLATEAU,KPMG) p.39 La fortune des milliardaires a augmenté de 17% en 2024 (UBS BillionaireAmbitions Report) p.39 Le fossé des compétences en IA se creuse (Etude Randstad) p.40 Vers un nouveaumodèle : l’ère du conseil augmenté (Renaud BARBIER, Osons) p.40 L’AMLA : Vers une avancée ou un mirage régle- mentaire ? (HalimMEGHARBI, House of Compliance) p.41 Il est temps d’inverser la tendance ! (IMDWorldDigital Competitiveness Ranking) p.41 t Informatique financière An opportunity for fully digitalized processes and broader range of features: Luxembourg’s digital banking maturity (François BADE, Ruben VAZ, Pascal MARTINO, Deloitte) p.43 Hackathon IA : Imaginer l’entreprise de demain (House of Startups) p.43 CryptoFinance et DeFi : les enjeux pour la place financière (Fabrice CROISEAUX, InTech) p.44 MiCAR and Grandfathering : Stuck between a Rock and a hard Place (Vincent WELLENS, Ottavio COVOLO, NautaDutilhAvocats) p.45 A Lunchtime Dialogue at the LHoFT; Strategies of DORA (Oriane KAESMANN, LHoFT) p.45 Financial benefits of green ICT: A smart business decision that balances sustainability and profitability (Sebastien GENCO, Dorine PETIT, Mostapha RAMADAN, Deloitte) p.46 Technology through time andbeyond (TNTSymposium2024) p.46 LaCSSFadopteClarencepourdévelopperl’intelligence artificielle enpleine souveraineté p.48 LHoFTFoundationOpensApplicationsforanIndustry UtilitytoTransformFinancialDataExchange p.48 t Nominations p.42