Agefi Luxembourg - octobre 2024
Octobre 2024 17 AGEFI Luxembourg Wealthmanagement / Banques P wC Luxembourg announce the publication of its report: “ Banking Trends and Figures 2024 GenAI: The new face of ban- king disruption ”Many facets of GenAI (challenges and opportuni- ties) were discussed at the dedi- cated PwC Luxembourg Banking Day on 30 September 2024, which had as its theme – GenAI as a cata- lyst for reinvention! The event was a resounding success – testi- mony to the keen interest in this topic – andwas hosted by Julie Batsch, PwCBanking and Capital Markets Leader and PatriceWitz, PwCTechnology Partner, and Digital Leader at Mudam in Lux- embourg-Kirchberg. Thebankingsector,nostrangertodisrup- tion, has had to navigate several waves of innovationfromfintechstartups,evolving customer expectations, and rapid techno- logical advancements. Now, as the sector stands on the brink of a new era, GenAI emerges as its new face of disruption. 8.While some banks are far advanced in theirdigitaltransformationstrategies—in- tegrating AI and other technologies into their core operations over the years—oth- ersarestillracingtoachievethis.Thisnew wave of disruption, led by GenAI, promisestoreshapethebankingsectoryet again,offeringinstitutionstheopportunity toembraceinnovationandstayatthefore- front of the industry. By the end of this decade, bank potential spending on GenAI is estimated to reach USD 85.7 billion, up from a forecasted USD5.6 billion in 2024.As a sector driven byknowledge and technology, this expo- nential investment flowing into GenAI highlights newpriorities and the scope of influenceGenAIholdsacrossthebanking industry. It reflects an accelerated transi- tionfromlegacysystemsandthegrowing recognitionofAIandGenAI’stransforma- tive potential in the financial sector. The aim of this year’s was to capture the potential of GenAI to enhance cost effi- ciency. Drive innovation, enhance em- ployee and customer experience, and bolster securitymeasures.As the banking sectorgrowsmorecomplex,PwCbelieves that GenAI will stand out as a critical tool foroptimisingoperationsandmeetingthe evolving expectations of customers through personalised and predictive ser- vices.Additionally, its sophisticated algo- rithms can strengthen security by detec- tingandrespondingtocyberthreatsinreal time, providing robust protection against fraud and other security breaches. How- ever, realising the full potential of GenAI in Luxembourg’s banking sector requires navigating a complex array of challenges. In addition to a fragmented regulatory landscape, evolving employee expecta- tions, and the transition from legacy sys- tems, banks must also prioritise addressing critical concerns around data protection, security, and the growing risk of malicious use by increasingly sophisti- cated cybercriminals. The need for up- skilling employees to effectively work with GenAI also cannot be underesti- mated. These factors not only create op- portunities forGenAI integrationbut also highlight the importance of robust gover- nance frameworks to ensure that these risks are proactivelymanaged. Toaddressthesechallenges,PwCLuxem- bourg recommends some key steps (in more detail in the report) that are neces- sary for the GenAI adoption journey for banks inLuxembourg: - Establish responsibleAI policies and a secure environment to build a founda- tion of trust; - Define anAI strategy toprioritise high- value use cases; - Build initial use cases by identifyingpat- terns that can scale; - Review and refine AI governance and implementation to continuously align with evolving regulatory standards. Throughout the report, the underlying thread is thatAI/GenAIwill be best used when augmenting human capacity rather thanattempting to replace it. It re- lies onskilledpersonnel todeliver its true value, and this means that a critical part of the strategic pathway to adopting GenAI in the banking industry involves upskilling the workforce as to the tech- nology right up toBoard level.Addition- ally, amidst the increased automation brought on by GenAI, maintaining a human touch is essential for building and preserving customer trust. Banks should therefore strike a balance be- tween leveraging GenAI for efficiency gains while ensuring that the element of human interactions remain present. Julie Batsch , Audit Partner, Banking and Capital Markets Leader, PwC Luxem- bourgsaid:“AsGenAIwillcontinuetore- shape the banking industry, we believe that thosewhoact decisivelyandrespon- siblywill be ina leadingposition inan in- creasingly competitive AI-driven future. These forward-thinking banks will posi- tion themselves to capitalise on new op- portunities beyond just achieving operational efficiencies. By proactively addressing the key forces shaping GenAI’sadoption,theywillnotonlynav- igate the complexities of GenAI integra- tion but also set new standards for innovation and leadership within the banking industry in Luxembourg.” Patrice Witz , Advisory Partner, Technol- ogy Partner and Digital Leader, PwC Luxembourgsaid:“Asthenewfaceofdis- ruption,GenAIisacatalystforinnovation and efficiency in the banking industry. The technology isnot confined to specific business functions; rather, it permeates the entire value chain of any bank. How- ever, the path to successful adoption re- quires careful navigation of the forces shaping the industry, froma fragmented regulatory landscape to data quality and privacy issues.” Gilles Roth , Minister of Finance high- lighted several points at EU and Luxem- bourg-level,notingthatthebankingsector hasbeenableadapttochallengesinrecent years, keeping it as the cornerstone of the Luxembourg economy. Significantly he alsostatedthatAI/GenAIcouldbethetool (s) used to boost competitiveness-as com- petitiveness was one of the key aspects covered by the Minister at the event. Mr Roth ended by noting the importance of dialogue between the Government and the private sector. While the banking sec- torrequiresitsleaderstoensureasuccess- ful future, the Government would continue to foster an environment where the financial sector can develop and re- main sustainable and competitive. This was followed by keynote speaker, Patrice Amann , Microsoft EMEA Finan- cial ServicesLeaderwho focusedon three core topics: (i) recent trends in the global economy and its impact on AI, (ii) the changes inAI and introductionof GenAI, and (iii) the vision forGenAI. Patrice then emphasised thatAI is not new, but its ca- pabilities have augmented due toGenAI. Hence, at Microsoft they refer to “aug- mented intelligence”, as opposed to the “artificial intelligence”. He concluded by noting that employees should not fear beingdisplacedbyAI,butratherbeaware that they will be challenged by people who can effectivelyuseGenAI. Patrice Witz moderated a panel discus- sionwith AnandaKautz , Paul Sweeney , and Anne Goujon with a focus on the impactofdigitalisationandGenAIonthe banking industry. In relation to the areas where digitalisation has had the biggest impact, panellists agreed that the client has seen the biggest impact, highlighted by the level of services provided via bankingapps,rangingfromaccessingac- counts,todigitallysigningdocuments,or performing mobile payments. Other areaswheredigitalisationhashadan im- pact include improvements in opera- tionalefficiencyandnewCRMsolutions. The panellists agreed that GenAI will be used as a tool set augmenting experts rather than replacing them. As such, while in 3-5 years’ time panellists expect the industry to have AI-imbedded solu- tions suchas virtual assistants,AIwill re- main a factor that only “augments”, and highlighted the critical role that will be played by experts and staff, who are the ones that, feed theAI tool andplay a crit- ical role in the customer engagement pieces, respectively. Other highlights included keynote speaker ElinHauge ,professionalspeaker and AI strategist, addressing the critical need for businesses to understand the mathematics anddata behindAI to effec- tively harness its potential and mitigate challenges such as sustainability issues anddatabias.ElinemphasizedthatGenAi is based on mathematics rather than magic,andhighlightedtheimportancefor the entire organization, including the Board, to enhance their understanding of the technology quickly in order to effec- tively engagewith and evaluate it. SimonGorbutt , DeputyCEO - Luxem- bourg for Finance, highlighted Luxem- bourg’s resilient financial sector and the imperative of integratingAI tomaintain competitiveness, while also managing cyber-attack risks and evolving client demands. ClaudeMarx, General Direc- tor CSSF represented that body’s view as he discussed EU regulatory updates, the importance of governance inAI, and the necessity of collaboration between public and private sectors to address greenwashing and enhance investment within the EU. Banking Trends and Figures 2024 GenAI: The new face of banking disruption ©PwC L ’économiemondiale reste dépen- dante de la consommationdo- mestique américaine qui se montre toujours remarquablement ré- siliente, défiantmême la récente dé- tériorationdumarché de l’emploi, écrivent GuyWagner (cf. portrait) et son équipe dans leur dernier rapport d’analyse sur lesmarchés financiers, les «Highlights». En effet, malgré la remontée du taux de chômage d’unplus bas de 3,4%en 2023 à 4,2%aumois d’août, la consommation desménages continue à augmenter à un rythme annualisé d’environ 3% en termes réels. «La divergence persistante entre une production industrielle stagnante et des activités de services en expansion ne semble pas détourner l’économie amé- ricaine de sa trajectoire de croissance régulière», dit Guy Wagner, chief investment officer (CIO) de la société de gestion BLI - Banque de Luxembourg Investments. «Dans la zone euro, la croissance conjoncturelle manquedetonus.Lesderniersindicesd'activitésug- gèrent une faiblesse à la fin de l’été qui, non seule- ment,sepoursuitdanslesecteurmanufacturier,exa- cerbée par un secteur automobile en difficulté, mais qui, en outre, s’étend aux services, du moins dans les deuxprincipauxpays, l’Allemagne et la France.» En Chine, les autorités publiques sem- blent déterminées à stabiliser définiti- vement le marché immobilier dont la détérioration au cours des dernières années a fortement pesé sur la confiance desménagesmettant enpéril l’objectif de croissance de 5% pour l’en- semble de l’année. «L’annonce d’une série de mesures d’as- souplissement d’ordre monétaire sera sui- vie prochainement par des mesures de soutien d’ordre fiscal dont les détails et l’envergure n’ont pas encore été précisés», explique l’économiste luxembourgeois. Au Japon, lamodérationde l’in- flation et l’implémentation des augmentations de salaires négo- ciées au printemps rétablissent une croissance positivedupouvoir d’achat des ménages en termes réels, susceptible d'entraîner une accélération conjoncturelle au qua- trième trimestre. Poursuite de lamodérationde l’inflation La faiblesse des prix pétroliers entraîne la poursuite de lamodération de l’inflation globale alors que l’in- flation de base tend à stagner. Ainsi, aux Etats-Unis, le tauxd’inflationglobal a reculé à 2,5%en août. Le déflateur des dépenses de consommation hors énergie et alimentation, qui constitue l’indicateur de prixfavoridelaRéservefédérale,estrestéstable.Dans la zone euro, le taux d’inflation global est même repasséen-dessousduseuilde2%,à1,8%enseptem- bre. Le taux d’inflation excluant l’énergie et l’alimen- tation a par contre peu évolué, passant à 2,7%. LaRéserve fédérale a amorcé le cycle de relâchementmonétaire Lors de la réunion de septembre, la Réserve fédérale aamorcélecyclederelâchementmonétaireenrédui- sant la fourchette cibledu tauxdes fonds fédérauxde 50 points de base. GuyWagner : «La baisse de 50 points de base au lieu de 25 témoigne de la détermination des autorités monétaires à contenir la détérioration du marché de l’emploi en vue d’éviter la survenue d’une récession. Enraisondelamodérationconsidérabledel’inflation au cours des deux dernières années, les responsables monétaires considèrent dorénavant, dans le cadre de leur double mandat, le plein emploi comme objectif prioritaire.» Enzoneeuro,laBanquecentraleeuropéennearéduit commeprévusontauxdedépôtde25pointsdebase, après l’avoir baisséunepremière fois aumoisde juin. Bien que la présidente Christine Lagarde n’ait pas donné de guidance explicite, la faiblesse de l’activité économiqueetleralentissementdel’inflationplaident en faveurd’unepoursuitedurelâchementmonétaire auquatrième trimestre. La tendance baissière des taux d’intérêt à long terme se poursuit Lamodérationde l’inflation et le relâchementmoné- taire entamé par les deux principales banques cen- tralesmaintiennent enplace la tendancebaissièredes taux d’intérêt à long terme des deux côtés de l’Atlantique. Ainsi, le rendement à échéance du bon du Trésor US à 10 ans a reculé. Dans la zone euro, le taux de référence à 10 ans a baissé enAllemagne, en France, en Italie et enEspagne. Lesmarchés boursiers ont globalement retrouvé leur tendance haussière Aprèsunephaseplus volatile en juillet-août, lesmar- chésboursiersontglobalementretrouvéleurtendance haussière solidement ancrée depuis le début de l’an- née. «La baisse de ses taux directeurs de 50 points de base témoignant de la détermination de la Réserve fédérale américaine à vouloir éviter la récession ainsi que les importantes mesures de soutien monétaires annoncéesparlesautoritéschinoisesvisantàstabiliser le marché immobilier ont donné un coup de pouce auxmarchés actions américains et chinois.» Ainsi, le S&P 500 aux Etats-Unis a progressé de 2%, terminant le mois de septembre à un nouveau plus haut historique. L’indice MSCI Emerging Markets a augmenté de manière encore plus significative, tiré par la forte montée des bourses de Hong Kong, Shanghai, Shenzhen et Beijing. L’indice des actions mondialesMSCIAll CountryWorld IndexNet Total Return exprimé en euros a terminé le mois avec une progression de 1,5%, aboutissant comme le S&P 500 à unnouveau recordhistorique. «Au niveau sectoriel, la consommation discrétion- naire, les services publics et les services de communi- cationontleplusprogresséalorsquel’énergie,lasanté et la consommationde base ont enregistré les perfor- mances lesmoins favorables», conclut GuyWagner. L’économie mondiale reste dépendante de la consommation domestique américaine
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