Agefi Luxembourg - avril 2025

Avril 2025 17 AGEFI Luxembourg Economie / Fiscalité L eVice-Premierministre,mi- nistre desAffaires étrangères et duCommerce extérieur, Xavier Bettel, a participé à la réu- nionduConseil «Affaires étran- gères » de l’UE (CAE), qui s’est tenue le 14 avril à Luxembourg. A l’ordre du jour ont figuré l’agression russe contre l’Ukraine, la situation au Moyen-Orient,lesrelationsUE-Afrique,la situationentrel’Arménieetl’Azerbaïdjan, lasituationenGéorgieetlesrelationsavec les pays des Balkans occidentaux. Concernant les relations avec les pays des Balkansoccidentaux,lesministresdesAf- fairesétrangèresduBeneluxsesontexpri- més à travers une déclaration conjointe, prononcée par le ministre Bettel. Ainsi, le ministre Bettel a souligné l’importance géopolitiquede la régionet lanécessitéde résoudre lesdiverses questions bilatérales en suspens. Il a également soulevé que le futurdespaysdesBalkansoccidentauxse trouve dans l’UE, et qu’il est essentiel de continuer à soutenir les pays candidats dans la mise en œuvre des réformes né- cessaires pour répondre aux critères d’adhésion à l’UE. Par ailleurs, leministre a réitéré son appel pour la signaturede l’accorddepaixentre l’Arménieetl’Azerbaïdjan,toutendéplo- rant la dégradation des relations entre l’Azerbaïdjan et l’Assemblée parlemen- taire du Conseil de l’Europe, que le Luxembourg suit avec beaucoup d’atten- tionenraisondesaprésidenceduConseil desMinistres du Conseil de l’Europe. Il a rappeléqu’ildéplorelefaitquelenouveau gouvernementgéorgiensembletournerle dos à l’Union européenne, et ce contre les aspirations dupeuple géorgien qui conti- nue de manifester son adhésion aux va- leurs européennes. Entrevues bilatérales avec les ministres desAffaires étrangères du Kosovo et de laMacédoine duNord Enmarge duCAE, leministre Bettel a eu uneentrevuebilatéraleavecMmeDonika Gërvalla-Schwarz,Vice-premièreministre etministredesAffairesétrangèresetdela DiasporadelaRépubliqueduKosovo.Le ministre Bettel a affirmé que le Luxem- bourg, qui assume actuellement la prési- dence du Comité des Ministres du Conseil de l’Europe, maintiendra le dia- logue avec l’ensemble des parties pre- nantes sur la question de l’adhésion du Kosovo au Conseil de l’Europe. Il a éga- lementmisenavantl’excellentpartenariat entre les deux pays enmatière de coopé- ration au développement, ainsi que le plein soutien du Luxembourg à la pers- pective européenne duKosovo. Par ailleurs, leministreBettel a euune en- trevuebilatéraleavecM.TimčoMucunski, ministre des Affaires étrangères et du Commerce extérieur de la République de laMacédoine duNord. Leministre Bettel a exprimé ses condoléances au sujet de l’incendie tragique survenudans unedis- cothèque le 16 mars 2025 en Macédoine du Nord, et est revenu sur le soutien im- médiat apportépar leLuxembourgpar la suite. Par ailleurs, les deux ministres ont échangésurlesdynamiquespolitiquesac- tuelles dans la région, ainsi que sur le po- tentiel de renforcer les échanges économiques et commerciaux entre le Luxembourg et laMacédoine duNord. Entrevue bilatérale avec le Premierministre palestinien LeministreBettel a euune entrevue bila- térale avec Mohammad Mustafa, Pre- mierministre de la Palestine. Leministre Bettel a réitéré lanécessitéd’une solution politiquedurableauconflit israélo-pales- tinien, basée sur la solution à deux Etats. En outre, il a déploré la rupture du ces- sez-le-feu et l’interruption complète de l’acheminement de l’aide humanitaire à Gaza. Les échanges ont également porté sur la conférence internationale de haut niveau sur la solution à deux Etats, co- présidée par la France et l’Arabie saou- dite et prévue à la mi-juin à New York, ainsi que sur les relations entre l’Union européenne et la Palestine. En marge du CAE, le ministre Bettel a participé aupremier dialoguedehaut ni- veauentrel’UEetl’Autoritépalestinienne. Cette réunion a été l’occasion pour la HauteReprésentanteKajaKallas, pour la Commissaire à la Méditerranée Du- bravkaŠuicaetpourlesEtatsmembresde réaffirmer le soutien ferme de l’UE à l’Autoritépalestinienne,ycomprislesou- tienfinancier, pour permettre à l’Autorité palestinienne de continuer ses réformes internes et de subvenir aux besoins de la population palestinienne. Leministre Bettel a salué ce premier dia- loguedehautniveauetaexprimél’espoir que l’UE pourra renforcer ses relations institutionnellesaveclaPalestine,quisont actuellement basées sur un accord d’as- sociation intérimaire. Il a lancé un appel ferme pour que le gouvernement israé- lienverseàl’Autoritépalestiniennelesre- venus fiscaux qui lui sont dus mais qui sont collectés par Israël et actuellement bloqués. « L’Autorité palestinienne a de manière urgente besoinde ces fonds, qui lui reviennent, pourpayer les salairesdes enseignants, du personnel soignant, des policiers palestiniens. La stabilité en Cis- jordanie, y compris Jérusalem-Est, endé- pend. Je me suis rendu en Palestine à quatre reprises au cours des 18 derniers mois, et jepeux témoignerdes efforts im- portants que fait l’Autorité palestinienne pour continuer de fournir des services à sa population malgré ses grandes diffi- cultés financières. » Leministrearéitérésonsoutiensansfaille à l’UNRWA. La conférence de juin sur la solutionàdeuxEtatsseraunmomentim- portant pour rallier la communauté inter- nationale autour d’un message fort pour la paix, qui ne sera possible que lorsque deux Etats, Israël et la Palestine, pourront vivre côte à côte en sécurité. ministère desAffaires étrangères et européennes, de la Défense, de la Coopération et duCommerce extérieur Xavier Bettel au Conseil “Affaires étrangères” à Luxembourg «Le futur des pays des Balkans occidentaux se trouve dans l’UE» ©MAELuxembourg ByChris IGGO, CIO for Core Investments andChair of theAXA IMInvestment Institute F romaccelerating technological in- novation and climate change to the transfer ofwealth, globalme- gatrends are together unleashing a wave of new investment opportu- nities across a variety of asset classes - andwill likely drive investor behaviour for the decades to come. Megatrends have hugely sig- nificantandbroadimplications, shaping both society and the worldwide macroeconomic backdrop. These are typically multi-decadegrowthstories,for examplethelong-termpotentialof theinnovationaroundartificialintelligence(AI). Vitally,theyareprovidingaswatheofinvestmentop- portunities – across technology, the clean economy and much, much more. But equally, there are more short-term movements - intergenerational wealth transfer;thoselookingtoreinvestonthebackoffalling interest rates; and even those looking to invest for the first time – which have the potential to significantly impactmarkets and investor behaviour. The dash fromcash As theworldemerged fromthepandemic, inflation - andsubsequentlyinterestrates–rapidlybegantorise. Following theprolongedperiodof ultra-loosemone- tarypolicy,whichhelpeddriveamulti-yearbullmar- ket, cashwas once againking. However, interest rates have since eased and cash’s shine has begun to fade. But a towering amount of money remains uninvested - one estimate puts the combined total in money market funds and deposit accounts at some $22trn. That’s a lot ofmoneyon the sidelines and is, inour view, unlikely to stay there in- definitely. Investors – and especially first-time in- vestors - may well want to gingerly (re)enter the market and fixed income, given its relatively lower riskprofile versus equities, is likely to benefit. Many bond investors have been enjoying higher in- come returns as the average rates (coupons) being paidonbond indices have been rising since 2021 and are likely to continue todo soas lower couponbonds issued before 2021mature. Over the past decade, the compound income return from a typical US dollar investment-grade index has been around 4%; in Europe, it has been just over 2%. For US dollar high yield, it has been close to 6.5%. Prevailing yield levels in de- veloped bondmarkets provide the basis for robust income returns, which should remain above inflation. The potential investment opportunities Bond prices can be volatile. To manage this, investors may choose strategies with less price and interest rate risk – like short-duration bonds, or more ‘go-any- where’ active vehicles such as global strategicbondport- folios, which can invest across the fixed income spectrum. We believe - given the broad increase in yields – that income levels are becomingmoreattractive.Inaddition,theadditional return and the continued healthy state of corporate balancesheetsunderpintheattractivenessofbothin- vestment grade and high yield bonds. This is espe- cially the case for short-duration strategies. We continue to see US high yield, a shorter duration assetclassthanitsinvestmentgradecounterpart,po- tentially delivering healthy returns. Societal changes are coming In the coming years and decades there will be a gar- gantuan wealth shift, which could have a profound impactonfinancialmarkets.Thegenerationalwealth transferwillbeamajordriveroffutureassetallocation. Itisestimatedthatby2030,some$18.3trnwillbetrans- ferredglobally toyounger generations. The source of the switch will chiefly come from the baby boomer generation (those born between 1946 and 1964) with projected assets of some $84trn, with circa $72trn goingtotheirheirsand$12trntocharities. Elsewhere, research shows that some 179 million people are set to retire over the next 10 years inOECDcountries. The potential investment opportunities A new, younger generation of more tech-savvy in- vestors are likely to opt for digital do-it-yourself in- vesting options, andmay have a preference formore understandable, simple and more readily accessible products. These could include easily tradeable ex- change-traded funds (ETFs) or equally the one-stop shop appeal of ready-made, well diversified multi- asset funds couldprove attractive. For retirees,many will want to secure their retirement savings and will opt for an annuity-type product to generate a steady income stream. Many others will decumulate that wealth and stay invested in products that can help them maintain their standard of living. Many will choose a combinationof the two routes. But for those lookingtostayinvested,herehigh-incomeproducing assets - bonds, dividend-payingequities andbroader multi-asset portfolioswill likely attract attention. Technological innovation The technology sector, and more specifically AI has dominated the headlines over recent years. Given it’s only in its fledgling years, it has already made a sig- nificant contribution to the way we live and work. And we have witnessed mega-cap tech companies deliversuperiorearningsgrowthasmoreapplications are developed. AIwillpotentiallyprovegame-changingforthewider economy,givenitspotentialtoimproveproductivity. But other sectors including healthcare and the fight againstglobalwarmingcanandwillbenefit.Thepos- sibilities appear endless. Therehasbeen,andwillbe,volatility.Thetechnology bull market of recent years, driven primarily by the so-calledMagnificentSevenstocks—Alphabet,Ama- zon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla – was never going to rise in a straight line. But significant growth is expected on the back ofAI, and it is anticipated that it couldadd trillions to the global economy in the coming years. The potential investment opportunities Technology shares have already enjoyed substantial gains, and it would be unwise to expect such perfor- mance to continue uninterrupted. But arguably we are still at the thin end of the wedge in terms of tech innovation.Moreprogressandbreakthroughsareyet to comewithpotential upside coming fromthematic sectors like automation, robotics andAI. Weseesignificantpotentialincompaniesthatleverage digital technologies and innovative business models todeliver compelling value propositions to their cus- tomers, disrupt traditional industries and capture market share. This encompasses businesses that are at the forefront of innovation in areas such as e-com- merce,cloudcomputing,cybersecurityandothercru- cial aspects of the digital economy. The futurewill be sustainable Donald Trump’s return to the White House has raisedseriousconcernsoverthepathtodecarbonisa- tion given his anti-green agenda. Equally environ- mental, social and governance (ESG) investing has fallenoutoffavourinsometerritoriesbutdespitethis backdrop recent data starkly illustrates a rapidly ex- panding sustainable investing industry. In 2024, investment in the low-carbon energy transi- tion globally rose grew11% to hit a record $2.1trn in 2024.Thegrowthwasdrivenbyelectrifiedtransport, renewable energy, and power grids, which all reachednewhighslastyear,alongsideenergystorage investment, according to BloombergNEF. The need to support and finance the transition to a more sus- tainable future ismore important than ever.And the momentum is there. Renewable energy costs are falling – for solar panels, as well as for onshore and offshorewind.Technologyiscontinuingtotacklethe challenge of cutting carbon emissions in areas such as agriculture, steel making and chemicals. The potential investment opportunities Fundamentally, technologies spearheading the ad- vancementofdecarbonisationandreducingbiodiver- sity loss are continuously being created and developed, which in turn is providing investorswith the scope for exposure to exciting new businesses. Sustainablyfocusedequitystrategies,aswellasgreen bonds-theproceedsofwhichareearmarkedforpro- jects which support a low-carbon economy - will be the main beneficiaries in the battle against climate change. Forecasts of significant increases inelectricity consumption – driven by the technology sector and China’s demand for power -will promote further in- tegration of solar andwind energy assets into power networks. Elsewhere strategies tapping into the so- called‘cleaneconomy’whichincludesindustriessuch aslowcarbontransport,naturalresourcepreservation, foodandagriculturaltechnologiesaswellassmarten- ergy are likely to benefit. For better or for worse, the world remains in flux. There is no shortage of challenges to overcome, es- pecially in the geopolitical sphere. But amid all the obstacles, profound changes are takingplace, across society, technology and the path to net zero. The strides being made should have a huge impact on how we live, work and invest. Global megatrends are here to stay, and as they evolve further should continue tooffer investorsplentyof food for thought and investment opportunities over the years and decades to come. The megatrends and societal shifts driving new investment opportunities