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GDP growth is steady, unemployment is historically low and real wages are rising. If the state of the US economy is not front and centre of the 2016 election, what should investors be focussing on? In this piece, we examine the polls, politics and policies that matter for markets, as well as the rise of ‘protectionism’. We also call on our Fixed Income Portfolio Managers to outline how they are analysing and managing the risks for their asset class.
Polls
The key question is how the growing momentum in Republican popularity at a national level filters through to the state level and Electoral College vote. Recent polling indicates that Trump will have to convert all remaining 29 ‘undecided’ Swing States and convert at least one leaning Democrat state...
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