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Opinion - By Shanu SHERWANI, Chief Investment Officer, Kneip Management S.A., Luxembourg
A few weeks ago, a colleague forwarded me a private strategy note circulated among institutional investors. What struck me was not its view on the conflict but a single line near the opening: “our interpretation is that trouble for risk assets was coming anyway, for reasons that were apparent before March.” The author had not predicted the Iran war. But he had already identified the three structural vulnerabilities that the war would expose. That distinction matters enormously when deciding whose analysis to trust.
Most post-war research was reactive — institutions revising targets in response to an oil shock no one had fully priced. This note argued...
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